Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
645 AM EDT
Wed Feb 18 2026

Synopsis
Low pressure passes south of New England today and tonight bringing a period of snow and rain. High pressure briefly takes control Thursday before a complex wintry mix arrives Friday and Saturday. A potentially significant coastal storm is being monitored for the Sunday and Monday timeframe.

What has Changed
The axis of heaviest precipitation, or the line where the most moisture will fall, has shifted slightly south. This led to slightly lower snowfall totals for portions of central and western Massachusetts. Winter Weather Advisories continue this afternoon into tonight. Confidence has increased for a period of impactful snow and mixed precipitation Friday night into Saturday. Highest accumulations look to be along and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Weather guidance has trended further southeast for a coastal storm that could impact the region Sunday into Monday though it is still quite early and confidence remains low.

Discussion

Some travel impacts from accumulating snow this afternoon and evening.
This is a very tricky forecast this afternoon into tonight. Much of the primary computer guidance shifted the axis of heaviest precipitation farther south, especially some of the high resolution models such as the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and the 3 kilometer North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Meanwhile, other models like the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Rapid Refresh (RAP) develop a second area of heavier precipitation this afternoon into this evening. For this forecast, we followed the general consensus, but remain wary of the possibility of that second band of moisture.

Snowfall accumulations were trended downward slightly. The shift of the precipitation toward higher temperatures means a wetter snowfall, which reduces the overall amount. We preferred the ensemble representation of precipitation types, as the National Blend solution had entirely too much freezing rain. This means snow for the higher elevations of central and western Massachusetts, with rain most likely elsewhere at the start this afternoon. As temperatures lower toward this evening, there may be a brief period of freezing rain or sleet before the transition to snowfall is complete.

We continued the Winter Weather Advisory across central and western Massachusetts for 2 to 4 inches of snowfall. We considered expanding an advisory into northern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island due to the possibility of icing. We decided against it as confidence in widespread icing is low and the window of time when icing would be possible is short. This may change as more details come into better focus today.

That said, confidence is a bit lower farther east, including the Boston and Providence areas, since temperatures initially may be too warm to allow snow to accumulate. We still think 1 to 2 inch snowfall totals are more likely in these areas. Precipitation ends sometime late this evening. It is quite possible the Winter Weather Advisory can be canceled earlier than its current end timing.

Complex system brings a variety of precipitation types Friday and Friday night including snow, freezing rain, and rain. Scattered snow showers linger into Sunday.
Brief high pressure on Thursday gives way to an active and unsettled period of weather Friday and Friday night. An upper level low moves over the Great Lakes pushing a surface warm front northeast towards the region. Guidance has also hinted at a secondary coastal low developing just south of southern New England Friday night.

Temperature profiles lean towards a mixed precipitation event as model soundings show a significant warm nose, which is a layer of warmer air aloft that melts falling snow into rain or sleet, associated with the warm front and subsequent strong Warm Air Advection (WAA), or the transport of heat into the area by the wind. Models also show the potential for a front end thump of snow across the interior Friday afternoon with decent values of vertical motion, known as omega, in the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ). The DGZ is the layer of the atmosphere between -15 and -20 degrees Celsius where snowflakes grow most efficiently.

The precipitation type forecast looks a bit more straightforward across the south coast as marginal temperatures near 32 degrees may lead to a mostly rain event, while that mid level warm layer also introduced the likelihood of freezing rain for parts of the interior. The northward extent of freezing rain will be determined by how far north that warm air reaches.

The latest model suite shows a steady increase in the number of ensemble members that show a second low forming near or south of the Cape and Islands Friday night. The formation of even a weak area of low pressure would help to pull colder air farther south and keep precipitation as a wintry mix and snow across northern Massachusetts, mainly north of the Turnpike. The chance for 4 or more inches of snow through Saturday along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike is between 15 and 30 percent, with a 40 to 55 percent chance to the north.

Watching a potential winter storm Sunday into Monday.
Guidance continues to show a potentially significant winter storm developing off the East Coast Sunday into Monday, but as usual at this time range, we are seeing a variety of solutions and high variability between model runs.

Much of the uncertainty stems from how quickly a northern atmospheric disturbance, or shortwave, can close off as it tracks toward the East Coast. This depends on the strength of a high pressure ridge over the North Atlantic. A stronger ridge would help the low pressure system strengthen and tilt in a way that allows the coastal storm to track closer to southern New England with higher impacts. Conversely, a weaker ridge would mean the storm stays further out to sea.

When looking at the DESI clusters, which are groups of model forecasts that show similar potential outcomes, we see that the different scenarios depend heavily on this upper level steering flow. Some clusters favor a much closer track to the coast, while others keep the system suppressed to the south. It is interesting to note the artificial intelligence versions of the global models have performed well this winter and continue to bring the low close enough to impact at least the South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands.

Right now odds favor at least some impact to Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, but keep in mind we are several days out. We probably wont see any notable trends until Thursday at the earliest. One thing we are becoming more confident in is the potential for coastal flooding and marine impacts.
We are approaching higher natural tides Sunday and Monday and much of the eastern Massachusetts coast could see minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. On the coastal waters, there is the potential for northeast gale force winds and rough seas.