Weather for New England and the Northeast

National Weather Service Boston Norton MA
Issued 557 AM EDT Thursday January 22 2026
Area Forecast Discussion

What Has Changed
Confidence continues to increase that the region will experience a moderate to high impact winter storm Sunday into Monday.

Key Messages
 - Lingering rain and snow early this morning, with up to 0.5 inches of additional snow possible in the Worcester Hills.
 - Temperatures rise above normal today with gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph. Another round of strong winds arrives Friday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
 - An arctic front arrives Friday night, bringing dangerous cold and wind chills through the weekend and into next week.
 - A late weekend coastal storm is increasingly likely to bring impactful snowfall to southern New England Sunday into Monday.

Discussion
Lingering Rain and Snow This Morning
A broad area of precipitation across much of southern New England will move offshore around sunrise. While temperatures are already rising and the coastal plain is above freezing, lingering snow will be limited to higher elevations inland. Up to 0.5 inches of additional snow is possible in the Worcester Hills before precipitation ends.

Milder and Windy Today, Then Another Wind Surge Friday
Southwesterly flow is pulling in warmer air, a process known as warm air advection. Temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground, measured at the 850 millibar and 925 millibar levels, are warming into the upper 20s to lower 30s degrees. This supports surface highs climbing above normal, reaching the upper 30s in higher terrain and low to mid 40s across the coastal plain.
As a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes and high pressure remains offshore, the pressure difference between them tightens. This leads to strengthening winds this afternoon, with gusts increasing to 25 to 35 mph before easing overnight.
An arctic front is expected to move through southern New England by Friday afternoon. As it passes, winds will rapidly increase again, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Dangerous Arctic Cold Friday Night Through the Weekend
Behind the front, a truly arctic air mass pours into the region Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures several thousand feet above the surface drop to around minus 13 to minus 22 degrees, which is exceptionally cold for late January. This strong cold air advection will result in the coldest morning of the forecast period on Saturday.
Overnight lows fall into the single digits for most areas, with below zero readings in the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Gusty winds, enhanced by efficient mixing from a low level jet overhead, will create dangerous wind chills. In the Berkshires, it may feel like minus 15 to minus 25 degrees, where an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued. Elsewhere, wind chills of minus 5 to minus 15 degrees are expected Saturday morning, and a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed.
Daytime highs Saturday only reach the single digits in higher terrain and the mid teens elsewhere. Temperatures moderate only slightly later in the weekend. Marine interests should note a high risk for moderate freezing spray Saturday morning, with the potential for heavy freezing spray creating hazardous conditions on the waters.

Late Weekend Coastal Storm, Increasing Snow Potential
Attention now turns to a potential winter storm late Sunday into Monday. The overall signal continues to improve, with increasing confidence in a moderate to high impact snow event across southern New England. While details such as exact track and timing are still uncertain, guidance continues to suggest a favorable setup for significant snowfall.
Ensemble guidance shows better agreement on storm track near a historically favorable benchmark.
Current probabilities indicate a 60 to 70 percent chance of more than 6 inches of snow in northwest Massachusetts and greater than 90 percent in southeast Massachusetts. Probabilities for a foot of snow range from 30 to 40 percent in the northwest to 60 to 70 percent in the southeast. These are model based probabilities and can still change as the event approaches.
The overall environment supports significant snow, including a plume of subtropical moisture, a very cold air mass already in place, and strong upward motion in the atmosphere. One remaining question is how efficiently snow growth occurs within the dendritic growth zone, which influences snow intensity and fluffiness. At this time, the heaviest snow appears most likely Sunday afternoon through early Sunday night, with lighter snow potentially lingering into Monday.

Winds with this system are not expected to be damaging over land, though gusty conditions are possible over the waters. Any snow that falls will be slow to melt, as cold temperatures persist into next week.