Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

237 PM EST Tuesday November 3, 2026

What Has Changed

No significant changes have been made to the forecast since the previous update.

Key Messages

- Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues Wednesday.
- Wet and unsettled weather returns Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal initially, followed by cooler conditions beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Unseasonable warmth and dry weather continue Wednesday

An area of high pressure at the surface, along with a ridge of warmer air higher in the atmosphere, will continue to control our weather through early Thursday. A strong area of warm air will settle across southern New England, helping temperatures climb well above normal for early November.

Mainly sunny skies, relatively dry ground conditions, and southwest winds will allow warmer air to mix down toward the surface. This could result in temperatures climbing higher than some forecast models are currently suggesting.

High temperatures Wednesday are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s, with some valleys potentially reaching the middle 70s. A few locations could even approach the upper 70s. Forecast guidance gives portions of the Connecticut River Valley and the Boston metropolitan area a 20 to 50 percent chance of exceeding 75 degrees.

If temperatures reach these levels, several daily records could be challenged or broken. The current records include Boston at 78 degrees, Providence at 77 degrees, Worcester at 74 degrees, and Hartford at 78 degrees.

The unusually warm weather will continue into Wednesday night. Overnight temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s, which is closer to what we would normally expect for daytime high temperatures at this time of year. Some locations could also approach or break records for the warmest overnight low temperatures.

Key Message 2: Wet and unsettled weather returns Thursday through the weekend

Forecast guidance continues to point toward an end to our unusually long stretch of dry weather beginning Thursday. A period of intermittent rainfall is expected to develop, lasting approximately 36 to 48 hours, with some periods of potentially heavy rain.

The initial weather system will approach from the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front toward New England. After moving through New York, the front is expected to slow down and stall across New England, extending from southwest to northeast late Thursday.

This will bring the first chances for rain on Thursday, particularly across western portions of southern New England. Areas southeast of a line from Hartford to Worcester may remain mostly dry during this initial round.

A more widespread and potentially heavier period of rainfall is expected Friday into early Saturday. Another area of low pressure will develop along the stalled front and strengthen as it moves north toward Cape Cod on Saturday. It is then expected to intensify further over the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. By that time, much of our region should be on the drier side of the system.

There will be plenty of moisture available to fuel this storm system. Persistent southwest winds will transport very moist air into the region, with atmospheric moisture levels exceeding 1.5 inches of precipitable water. Precipitable water measures how much moisture is contained throughout the atmosphere and helps meteorologists assess the potential for heavy rainfall. Dewpoints, which indicate the amount of moisture in the air, could reach the low 60s.

This moisture will contribute to unusually mild overnight temperatures Friday morning, with readings remaining in the low 60s. More importantly, it will provide plenty of fuel for periods of heavier rain.

The combination of atmospheric instability and an approaching weather system could also produce localized downpours. Areas where winds and weather systems come together will help force air upward, encouraging additional rainfall. A powerful upper-level jet stream, with winds reaching approximately 120 mph, will provide additional support for this developing storm.

Exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur remains uncertain. The location of the stalled front will largely determine which areas receive the greatest amounts, and that should become clearer as we get closer to the event.

Current forecast guidance generally suggests rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across parts of southern New England, with central and eastern areas potentially receiving the most. Additional forecast guidance indicates a 50 to 60 percent chance of at least 1 inch of rain across the region, while another forecast model places that probability closer to 30 to 40 percent.

Fortunately, the region has experienced an extended period of dry weather, and the ground currently has a relatively high capacity to absorb rainfall. Widespread flash flooding is not expected to be a major concern at this time. However, localized flooding remains possible, particularly in urban areas and locations with poor drainage. Fallen leaves blocking storm drains could make these problems worse.

Looking Ahead

After Saturday, scattered showers may continue as the upper-level low-pressure system slowly moves away from the region. However, rainfall should become considerably less widespread and less intense than what is expected Friday and Saturday.

The atmosphere will gradually become drier heading into next week. Behind the departing system, northwest winds will bring a cooler air mass into New England, with temperatures returning closer to normal for early November.

High temperatures are expected to settle back into the 50s early next week, marking a noticeable change from the unusually warm conditions experienced during the middle of this week.