Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

Date and Time: 2:37 PM EDT Monday, October 19, 2026

What Has Changed

No significant changes to the forecast.

Key Messages

1\. Dry and seasonable weather will continue through Tuesday night, with gusty northeast winds developing along the coast. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night will mainly be in the 30s and 40s, while Tuesday afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

2\. Rain may reach coastal areas Wednesday into Thursday as an offshore nor’easter passes well south of the region. The main impacts from this storm will be along the coast and over the ocean, including rough seas, beach erosion, and strong winds.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Dry and Seasonable Weather Through Tuesday Night

Dry and seasonable weather will continue through Tuesday night. A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada, combined with low pressure off the North Carolina coast, will create a stronger pressure difference across the region. This will cause northeast winds to increase Tuesday into Tuesday night, particularly along the coastal plain.

Northeast wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected along the Interstate 95 corridor, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph across Cape Cod and the Islands. Nantucket could see a few gusts reaching 45 mph or higher, potentially approaching the criteria for a Wind Advisory, which is issued when winds become strong enough to create hazardous conditions.

Most areas will remain dry through Tuesday night, although a few showers could reach Nantucket. Periods of low clouds may develop along the southeastern New England coast. The chance of low clouds and possibly showers across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island becomes greater late Tuesday night.

Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night will generally range from the 30s to the 40s. The mildest readings will be across Cape Cod and the Islands, where persistent northeast winds will keep temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s. Inland locations will be the warmest, while Cape Cod and the Islands will be cooler because of the moderating influence of the ocean.

Key Message 2: Offshore Nor’easter Could Bring Coastal Rain Wednesday Into Thursday

Forecasters remain confident that an offshore nor’easter, a strong coastal storm, will stay mainly south of southern New England. The main uncertainties are how close the storm will approach the region and how quickly it will move away.

Forecast models differ on the storm track and timing. The NAM model continues to show a track farther west than most other forecast guidance. Most models keep the storm well south of the 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude benchmark, a reference point used by forecasters to help assess the position of coastal storms.

There are also significant differences in the timing of the storm. The GFS model projects a slower progression, while the ECMWF model indicates a faster-moving system.

Taking these differences into account, showers are possible across southeastern Massachusetts and perhaps parts of eastern Rhode Island from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Most of southern New England should remain dry during this period. Total rainfall is expected to be light, with Nantucket potentially receiving around one quarter inch.

Coastal Winds, Rough Seas, and Beach Erosion

The primary impacts from this nor’easter are expected over coastal waters rather than inland areas. Strong northeast winds, including gale-force conditions, are expected to continue over the southern coastal waters, producing rough seas. Seas will also become rough over the eastern coastal waters, although wave heights there are not expected to be quite as high.

Persistent easterly winds blowing across the ocean toward the coast will help build and maintain rough seas. This combination could increase the risk of beach erosion, particularly along beaches that face east and northeast.

Those living along the coast or planning ocean activities should monitor the forecast for changing marine conditions, strong winds, and possible shoreline impacts through Wednesday and Thursday.