Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA,
210 AM EDT
Fri Aug 14 2026**

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**

Overall, little change to the forecast, with increasing confidence that most of Sunday remains dry before rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday.

**KEY MESSAGES**

* Seasonable, less humid, and mainly dry conditions today, though an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible.

* Dry, seasonable, and comfortable weather continues through the weekend.

* Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, followed by quieter weather through most of next week.

**DISCUSSION**

**KEY MESSAGE 1, Seasonable, less humid, and mainly dry conditions today**

Overall, not much has changed with todays forecast. If kicking off the weekend early this Friday, pleasant weather is expected following yesterdays cold front. Mainly sunny skies and good mixing of the lower atmosphere will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 80s, with periodic breezy northwest winds. A sea breeze may develop along Bostons South Shore.

Drier air continues to move into southern New England, with humidity lowering through the day. A surface trough, an elongated area of lower pressure, dropping south from northern New England this afternoon may provide enough low-level convergence, where air comes together and rises, for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Coverage is expected to remain very limited. Any shower or storm that develops should move through quickly and remain non-severe.

Despite the pleasant weather, a moderate risk for rip currents is expected today and Saturday. Those heading to the beach should remain aware of local conditions and check with lifeguards or beach staff regarding rip current risks at their specific location.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for strong radiational cooling, meaning heat near the ground will escape efficiently under clear skies. Lows fall into the 50s across the cooler outlying locations, while urban centers remain near 60 degrees.

**KEY MESSAGE 2, Dry, seasonable, and comfortable weather continues through the weekend**

Quiet weather is expected this weekend as high pressure originating from northern Canada settles across the Northeast through the first half of Sunday. PWATs, or precipitable water, lower to between 0.5 and 0.7 inches. This represents the total amount of moisture available in the atmosphere and indicates a notably dry airmass with little humidity.

Temperatures remain seasonable, with highs generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another cool night is expected Saturday night, with clear skies and light winds supporting strong radiational cooling. Lows fall into the lower to middle 50s across the cooler outlying locations, while urban centers remain near 60 degrees.

High pressure begins to shift offshore Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. Increasing warm air advection, meaning warmer air moving into the region, will bring increasing clouds through the afternoon while temperatures remain seasonable. Humidity will gradually increase as dew points rise into the lower 60s.

**KEY MESSAGE 3, Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday**

The next opportunity for rainfall arrives during the second half of Sunday, with the steadiest rain expected Sunday night into early Monday. There is growing confidence that most, if not all, of the daylight hours Sunday remain dry. Ensemble guidance, which uses many forecast model runs to show the range of possible outcomes, generally keeps the probability of measurable rainfall below 50 percent until around **8 PM to 2 AM EDT Monday**, supporting a later onset to the rainfall.

There remains uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts, however, as the strongest atmospheric forcing is associated with the surface low. Differences in the storm track make it difficult to determine where the greatest rainfall will occur. Ensemble guidance continues to show differing solutions, with some members keeping the primary low farther north while others track it closer to or across southern New England. Regardless of the eventual track, rainfall appears increasingly likely Sunday night, though uncertainty remains regarding how much rain will fall.

Global forecast guidance is in agreement that PWATs may exceed 2 inches, supporting the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails for precipitation also highlight a signal across northern New England. These products compare the forecast to the model climatology and look for unusually high precipitation amounts compared with what is normally expected.

A Marginal Risk, level 1 of 4, for excessive rainfall remains in place for all of New England except northern Maine. Ensemble guidance continues to show considerable spread in potential rainfall totals, with the ECMWF ensemble being the more robust solution and the GFS and CMC ensembles generally depicting lower totals.

The system appears progressive, meaning it should move through relatively quickly, with a cold front clearing east of New England by Monday afternoon or evening. Drier air then moves in from the northwest, leading to another dry stretch Tuesday through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday, as surface high pressure builds back into the region.

Temperatures remain seasonable, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and tolerable humidity as dew points remain in the lower 60s. Unsettled conditions may return late next week.