Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME**
**550 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Light showers arrived earlier than expected across northern areas, so the chance of rain was increased for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with the main round of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon. The aviation forecast was also updated for the 8 AM EDT terminal forecasts.

**Key Messages**

1. Smoke from wildfires in Ontario meanders back north today into southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine.

2. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some storms could produce strong winds and small hail, mainly from the mountains toward the Maine coast.

3. Seasonable summertime conditions continue through the weekend and into next week, with at least a couple of chances for showers and thunderstorms.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

Smoke from Ontario wildfires, which shifted south of the region yesterday, is expected to return today across at least southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine. As a cold front approaches and weather patterns higher in the atmosphere change, the smoke plume should shift south again later today and tonight.

**Key Message 2 Description**

A disturbance in the upper atmosphere, known as a shortwave, along with a surface cold front, will move across the region today and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms.

While the atmosphere will not have a great deal of energy available for storms, there will still be enough instability for a few thunderstorms to become strong. In addition, winds changing speed and direction with height, known as wind shear, will be quite favorable for stronger storm development. The strongest storms may produce wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning.

Most high resolution forecast models indicate thunderstorms will develop over southern Quebec late this morning before moving into northern Maine and New Hampshire during the early afternoon. A few isolated storms could form ahead of the cold front, but most of the activity should remain along the front itself. As the storms move farther south toward the Maine coast, they are expected to weaken before ending by evening or moving offshore.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across northern areas, to the 80s across southern areas. Overnight lows will mainly be in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.

Friday will be pleasant behind the cold front, with dry weather and highs ranging from the 60s and 70s across the north to the lower and middle 80s across southern areas. Friday night lows will mainly be in the 50s.

**Key Message 3 Description**

From this weekend into next week, the large ridge of high pressure over the north central United States will gradually weaken and shift west while a broad trough of lower pressure strengthens over southeastern Canada. This overall weather pattern will bring more seasonable temperatures to New England for the foreseeable future.

At the surface, an area of low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes is expected to pass through the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday night. This makes Saturday the wetter of the two weekend days.

The developing low pressure system is expected to be fairly strong for the middle of July, with central pressure dropping to around 995 millibars as it passes nearby. After some morning showers along the warm front, New England may move into the warm, humid air ahead of the cold front.
While there could be a risk for stronger thunderstorms across parts of the interior Northeast, the later arrival of the system into New England during the evening, along with less favorable temperature changes with height, should limit the severe weather threat. Heavy downpours are considered more likely than widespread severe storms. Rainfall may be efficient because of the moist air, but overall precipitation amounts should remain limited because the system will move through fairly quickly.

Conditions should improve Sunday morning. A few showers may linger over the higher terrain in northern areas as cooler air moves in behind the system, but Sunday is expected to be the more enjoyable day of the weekend. High pressure arrives Monday, bringing another period of pleasant weather.
Another weather system may approach around the middle of next week, although forecast confidence remains low because model guidance continues to show a wide range of possible outcomes.

The one factor that may continue to affect otherwise pleasant weather is smoke from upstream wildfires. Winds ahead of and behind the weekend system are expected to continue transporting smoke from the fire source region toward New England.