Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME, 249 PM EDT
Fri Oct 2 2026**

**What has changed**

No significant changes with this forecast update.

**Key Messages**

1. A cold front moves south of the area tonight, returning temperatures to seasonable levels. Patchy dense fog will be possible in the valleys tonight.

2. A polar air mass arrives behind a strong cold front early next week. Many locations south of the mountains may see their first hard freeze.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

A cold front continues to move through the forecast area. Rain showers at this point are largely anafrontal, meaning the rain is occurring along or just behind the advancing cold front rather than ahead of it. A fairly well defined wind shift boundary is pushing southward on radar.

Very warm temperatures will drop into the low 70s as the front passes, followed by rain cooled air that will bring temperatures down into the 60s through the early evening. Overall, not much rain is expected, with precipitation amounts at or less than one tenth of an inch.

Once the front clears, some high clouds will remain early tonight, but conditions should generally allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and 40s. Areas that receive some rain will be good candidates for radiation fog, which forms when the ground cools rapidly after sunset and chills the nearby air. Fog is expected to remain possible in the major river valleys.

Saturday will be a seasonable day with little in the way of significant weather impacts. Saturday night, however, will be one of the cooler nights so far this season. At this point, temperatures in the 30s are not expected to reach too far into the active growing areas, so widespread frost headlines are not anticipated.

**Key Message 2 Description**

High pressure exits the region Sunday as an upper level trough, an elongated area of lower pressure and colder air aloft, moves in from the Great Lakes region. Clouds will build early, keeping afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The clouds should also keep Sunday night somewhat milder, with temperatures falling only into the low to mid 40s.

A strong cold front crosses the region Monday, and it continues to appear that the passage will be mostly dry. The latest forecast probabilities for measurable precipitation remain below 30 percent south of the mountains. The immediate coast has a slightly higher chance, around 30 to 40 percent, as forecast guidance begins to show a weak coastal low developing near the base of the upper level trough.

Otherwise, the more meaningful precipitation chances are confined to the International Border, where rain showers could briefly change to light snow if they linger long enough Monday night.

The bigger impact from the frontal passage will be the arrival of cold, dry air behind it. Temperatures about 5,000 feet above the ground are forecast to fall to roughly 19 to 32 degrees by early Tuesday. This will set the stage for a cold night. However, as low pressure systems interact over the Canadian Maritimes, the pressure difference across the region will increase. This tighter pressure gradient should produce breezy winds and may prevent temperatures from falling as much as they otherwise could.

North of the mountains, temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s, while areas to the south fall into the mid to upper 30s. The breezy winds will continue through Tuesday. Even with mostly sunny skies, Tuesday is likely to be one of the coldest days of the season so far.

With temperatures about 5,000 feet above the ground remaining unusually cold, afternoon highs should reach only the upper 40s and low 50s north of the mountains and the mid to upper 50s farther south. Depending on wind gusts, it could feel even colder.

Tuesday night currently looks like the coldest night of the season so far. If the pressure gradient weakens enough for winds to become calm, temperatures could fall even lower. The latest forecast guidance suggests near freezing temperatures could reach all the way to the coast.

Many areas south of the mountains may experience their first hard freeze, or at the very least their first frost, of the season. Most of these areas have already passed the normal period when Frost or Freeze products are issued. The coastal plain is the last area where such products can still be issued, and if conditions are favorable for strong radiational cooling, a frost or freeze headline may become necessary.

High pressure moves just south of the region Wednesday, which should keep conditions sunny and dry. Precipitation chances may return later in the week as longer range forecast guidance suggests another upper level trough developing, with low pressure somewhere in the vicinity.