Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME, 2:28 PM EDT Wednesday, August 26, 2026**

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**

Forecast rain amounts continue to decrease for the Thursday and Friday system.

**KEY MESSAGES**

1. A series of fronts will bring widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday.

2. Dry weather and lower humidity return for the weekend. Chances for showers return early next week.

**DISCUSSION**

**KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION**

An upper-level ridge, an area of higher pressure several miles above the ground, will continue moving across the region today as winds higher in the atmosphere shift toward the southwest. This pattern will keep the weather quiet through the rest of today and tonight, except for some valley fog developing tonight into Thursday morning. Low temperatures will mainly be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

An upper-level trough, an area of lower pressure aloft that often supports unsettled weather, will begin approaching Thursday. This will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and into Thursday night.

As newer high-resolution weather models, known as CAMs, become more useful for the Thursday forecast, the overall trend continues to be drier. Current NBM guidance, the National Blend of Models, shows probabilities of at least one-half inch of rain reaching about 40 to 60 percent at most, mainly across the White Mountains.

That said, several CAMs continue to show multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front. PWAT, or precipitable water, values are near normal or slightly above normal for this time of year. This means the atmosphere will contain enough moisture for brief heavy downpours in the strongest storms, although rainfall will be very hit or miss.

The latest HRRR model soundings show some instability, with MLCAPE, a measure of the amount of energy available to thunderstorms, around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer wind shear, which helps thunderstorms organize and strengthen, will be marginal at about 25 to 35 knots. As a result, a few thunderstorms could become strong, with small hail and gusty winds possible, mainly in New Hampshire.

Thunderstorms should diminish Thursday evening as daytime heating fades, although showers may linger in some locations through the night.

Another weather disturbance will interact with the cold front Friday, potentially producing more widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Coverage remains uncertain because some of the longer-range CAMs show minimal activity while others show considerably more. Precipitation chances should decrease fairly quickly as the front passes Friday evening and the region approaches sunset.

**KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION**

The front continues to move faster in the latest forecast guidance. This should allow most of the area to clear out early Friday night, allowing the ground to cool efficiently after sunset. This process, known as radiational cooling, can also help produce valley fog.

Southeastern New Hampshire and the immediate coast may remain somewhat warmer, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Most of the interior should fall into the lower 50s, while areas north of the mountains could drop into the mid to upper 40s under clearer skies.

High pressure, an area of generally fair and stable weather, will move eastward across the region through the weekend. This should produce mostly sunny skies with high temperatures generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Clouds will increase late Sunday as the high pressure system moves away and an upper-level low, an area of colder and lower pressure higher in the atmosphere, passes nearby through Quebec.

The forecast models now have a better handle on this pattern. A front is expected to remain positioned along the International Border and across Central Maine, providing the lift needed for showers through at least Monday.

Tuesday remains more uncertain as higher pressure develops aloft. However, another upper-level low is expected to follow a similar path to the early-week system and could pull another front through during the middle of next week. The major weather models disagree on the exact track of this second system, but continued chances for showers during the first part of next week appear reasonable.

This pattern will also bring cooler temperatures, arriving just in time for the beginning of meteorological fall.