Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA,
152 PM EDT
Fri Aug 14 2026**

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**

The risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms has increased this afternoon into early tonight, mainly across interior Southern New England.

**KEY MESSAGES**

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly across interior Southern New England this afternoon through sundown. A couple could produce small hail and gusty winds.

* Pleasant weekend with seasonably cool temperatures and comfortable humidity.

* Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, followed by quieter weather through most of next week.

**DISCUSSION**

**KEY MESSAGE 1, Scattered showers and thunderstorms**

The main concern for the rest of the afternoon into early tonight is scattered low-topped showers and thunderstorms. A fairly strong shortwave disturbance, an area of disturbed weather in the upper atmosphere, is near Ottawa, Ontario, and is expected to move southeast through New England this evening.

There is only modest instability, with dewpoints falling into the mid 50s. However, stronger forcing from the disturbance and colder air aloft are helping to produce scattered showers across New York and Vermont.

Forecast soundings show strong lapse rates, meaning temperatures decrease rapidly with height, along with strong winds higher in the atmosphere. The overall environment favors scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, although storms should remain relatively shallow.

Some stronger showers could produce graupel, small soft hail sometimes called dippin dots, while deeper thunderstorms could produce hail up to 1 inch in diameter along with locally strong and gusty winds.

The severe weather risk has increased to Level 1 of 5, but the overall chance of a severe storm remains low. The best chance for thunderstorms is mainly along and southwest of the FIT to ORH to PVD line, with showers more likely farther east into eastern Massachusetts.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish during the early to middle evening as the sun sets and the shortwave disturbance moves through.

Skies will clear overnight, with light northerly winds allowing some patchy river valley fog to develop. A major change in the airmass will bring much lower humidity, with overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60. It should be a good night to open the windows.

**KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasant weekend**

A beautiful weekend is shaping up as high pressure becomes established over Southern New England Saturday before moving offshore Sunday.

Saturday will feature full sunshine, light northerly winds and dewpoints falling into the 40s, providing a taste of early autumn. High temperatures should reach the mid 70s to around 80.

Saturday night will have excellent conditions for radiational cooling, meaning the ground will lose heat efficiently under clear skies and light winds. Widespread temperatures in the 50s are expected, along with some patchy river valley fog.

Clouds will increase somewhat Sunday. Most of the daytime should remain dry, although showers could begin developing late Sunday afternoon in western New England.

**KEY MESSAGE 3, Rain returns Sunday night into Monday**

Sunday will begin dry under an area of upper-level ridging, but conditions will become more unsettled as an approaching shortwave trough moves toward the region. Temperatures should reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

Rain is expected to arrive Sunday night, spreading from west to east. Periods of showers will continue through Monday. An embedded thunderstorm or heavier downpour cannot be ruled out because of the limited instability.

Precipitable water values, a measure of the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, will be around 1.5 to 1.8 inches. This means some brief periods of heavier rain are possible.

Strong enough winds higher in the atmosphere should keep heavier showers or thunderstorms moving, which should limit the overall flash flood threat. However, isolated flooding remains possible in poor drainage and urban areas if heavier downpours develop.

The Weather Prediction Center has this area under a Marginal Risk, Level 1 of 4, for excessive rainfall and potential flooding.

Total precipitation amounts are expected to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches across southern New England, with localized higher amounts possible, especially where heavier downpours occur.

A cold front will move through by Tuesday, bringing a drier airmass into Southern New England. Tuesday and Wednesday should remain generally dry, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s should keep humidity at comfortable levels. Forecast guidance suggests a trend toward more unsettled weather later next week, with additional chances for rain returning to the forecast.