Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME**
**232 AM EDT Friday, June 19, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Little change to the forecast over the next several days. Somewhat unsettled weather continues mainly across the mountains through the weekend until a more widespread rain event arrives Monday.

**Key Messages**

1. Unsettled pattern continues over the weekend into early next week.

2. The next chance for widespread rain looks to arrive early next week, with unsettled weather continuing through midweek.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

An upper-level low pressure system will slowly move east toward the Canadian Maritimes today. Broad counterclockwise circulation around this system, known as cyclonic flow, along with smaller disturbances rotating around it, will provide enough lift in the atmosphere to generate showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Activity will be focused mainly in and around the mountains, and a few storms may produce small hail.

Elsewhere, today will be breezy and partly sunny, although periods of mostly cloudy skies are expected. The atmosphere will become unstable during the day, allowing stronger winds from higher levels of the atmosphere to mix down to the surface. This process, known as mixing, will result in wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph possible, especially in higher elevations.

High temperatures will generally reach the 70s to lower 80s south of the mountains, while mountain locations remain somewhat cooler.

Winds will likely stay somewhat breezy Friday evening before gradually diminishing overnight. A few showers may linger across the mountains due to upslope flow, where air is forced upward by terrain, but most daytime activity should fade around sunset. Overnight lows will generally fall into the 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the mountains.

Saturday will remain breezy with northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Upslope flow and terrain effects will support considerable cloud cover and scattered showers along and north of the mountains. South of the mountains, shower chances decrease and sunshine becomes more common.

High temperatures Saturday will range from the lower 60s in northern areas to near 80 degrees along the coast, aided by downsloping winds, which warm and dry as they descend from higher terrain.

The pressure gradient, the difference in air pressure that drives wind, will weaken on Sunday, allowing winds to become lighter and turn onshore during the afternoon. A surface trough, an elongated area of lower pressure, combined with increasing atmospheric instability of around 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of storm fuel), will support the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.

Limited wind shear, meaning little change in wind speed and direction with height, should keep most storms below severe limits. However, steep mid-level lapse rates, referring to rapid cooling with height, along with relatively low freezing levels, may allow a few storms to produce small hail.

Much of the same can be expected Sunday, with scattered afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms developing as colder air remains in the upper atmosphere.

**Key Message 2 Description**

Forecast models continue to show a second upper-level low moving through Ontario early next week. As this system approaches, a larger trough of low pressure will deepen across the Northeast.

Forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding timing since yesterday. A surface low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes on Monday and move through the region Monday night. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact track. European and Canadian model ensembles favor a more inland path, while the GFS continues to indicate a track closer to the coast.

Regardless of the exact path, this system appears likely to bring the next widespread rainfall event to the region. Atmospheric moisture levels, measured by precipitable water values, are forecast to increase into the 1.50 to 1.75 inch range Monday. National Blend of Models guidance currently indicates a 50 to 60 percent chance of receiving more than one inch of precipitation.

Given the amount of recent rainfall, this system will need to be monitored closely for the potential of localized flooding.

After the Monday system departs, the region will remain under broad cyclonic flow. However, the upper-level low responsible for the rain should move northeastward. This should result in a somewhat drier pattern overall, although afternoon showers and thunderstorms may still develop at times through midweek.