Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**252 PM EDT Tuesday, June 9, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant updates were needed with this forecast package, as temperature and humidity trends for this week remain largely unchanged.

**Key Messages**

1. Increasing humidity is going to pose at least a moderate heat risk in most locations through Friday.

2. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may pose an excessive rainfall risk due to elevated moisture levels and weak winds aloft.

3. Other than a mostly dry Sunday, daily chances of showers return into early next week. Temperatures trend closer to normal, perhaps a few degrees above.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

Not much has changed regarding the heat risk this week. Forecast models continue to show temperatures about 5,000 feet above the ground, known as 850 millibar temperatures, rising into a range supportive of surface temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday through Friday.

Most inland areas are expected to reach those temperatures each day. Higher elevations and coastal communities will likely remain somewhat cooler.

The bigger change people will notice is the increasing humidity. Dewpoints, a measure of moisture in the air, have generally been in the upper 40s and 50s during the past couple of days, which has felt quite comfortable. By Wednesday, dewpoints rise into the 60s, creating noticeably muggier conditions. Thursday appears to be the most humid day, with dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s across much of the region.

As a result, actual temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s may feel more like the lower to middle 90s. The hottest conditions are expected in the lower river valleys of New Hampshire, where the greatest heat risk currently exists.

There remains uncertainty regarding just how warm temperatures become Thursday and Friday. Factors include cloud cover from developing thunderstorms and the strength of sea breezes along the coast. Because of these uncertainties, confidence remains too low to determine whether Heat Advisories will be needed. At this time, southern New Hampshire appears to have the greatest potential.

**Key Message 2 Description**

The combination of increasing heat and humidity will support daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through at least Friday.

The threat of strong to severe storms has decreased because the strongest upper-level weather disturbances are expected to remain west of the region. However, the focus is shifting toward the potential for excessive rainfall.

Forecast moisture levels, measured by precipitable water, or PWAT, are expected to rise into the 1.5 to nearly 2 inch range on Wednesday. PWAT is a measure of how much water vapor is available in the atmosphere. Values this high support very heavy rainfall rates within thunderstorms.

At the same time, winds higher in the atmosphere are forecast to remain quite light, around 10 knots. This means storms may move slowly or repeatedly track over the same locations, increasing the risk of localized flooding.

The Weather Prediction Center is currently highlighting the White Mountains in a Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall. Mountain terrain can enhance rainfall and increase runoff, making flooding concerns greater there. Current flash flood guidance suggests that 1 to 2 inches of rain in one to three hours could create problems in parts of the White Mountains.

Elsewhere across the forecast area, it would generally take 2 to 3 inches of rain within a few hours to cause flooding concerns. While that is a higher threshold, it remains possible given the amount of moisture expected in the atmosphere.

Moisture levels gradually decrease Thursday and Friday but remain elevated, with PWAT values still ranging from about 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Winds aloft remain light Thursday, so flooding concerns may continue. By Friday, stronger winds aloft of 20 to 30 knots should help storms move more quickly, but flooding potential could still exist depending on rainfall amounts earlier in the week.

**Key Message 3 Description**

A cold front is expected to move through the region Saturday morning, bringing showers along with it.

While confidence is improving regarding the timing of the front, uncertainty remains about Saturday afternoon temperatures. The speed at which clouds and showers clear out will determine how much temperatures recover later in the day. Areas farther south may see a quicker return of sunshine, while northern locations could remain cloudy longer.

The cold front will reduce both heat and humidity heading into early next week. Even so, temperatures are still expected to run a few degrees above normal. High temperatures should generally reach the middle to upper 70s, with around 80 degrees possible in southern New Hampshire.

As for precipitation, forecast guidance continues to indicate at least a chance of showers nearly every day through the middle of next week. Confidence remains low in identifying a completely dry day across the entire forecast area. As weather models come into better agreement, either Sunday or Monday could ultimately end up dry as high pressure attempts to build into the Northeast.

At the same time, there is also little indication that any one day will be a complete washout. Instead, the pattern favors periodic chances for showers with dry periods mixed in between.