Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
342 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026**

**What Has Changed**

A Flood Watch has been issued for central and eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Periods of rain will continue, potentially becoming moderate to heavy at times. Storm totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. The Flood Watch covers areas where the higher rainfall amounts are most likely, with potential impacts to small rivers and streams as well as urban and poor-drainage areas.

**Key Messages**

1. A strong, long-duration nor’easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding, beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds will persist into Monday.

2. Marked improvement is expected Tuesday, followed by mainly dry and warmer weather for the remainder of the week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Strong Winds, Heavy Rain, and Coastal Impacts**

Impacts from this nor’easter are already well underway. Satellite imagery shows a distinct, rotating low-pressure center positioned just south of the region. Bands of higher cloud tops indicate strong areas of rising air and instability, which are showing up on radar as convective showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.

This afternoon, these bands have shifted into the South Coast and southeastern Massachusetts. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue through the evening. Because the heavier showers are occurring in bands and are somewhat scattered, the most significant impacts will be localized. Southern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut face the greatest risk through tonight.

Isolated flash flooding remains possible under the heaviest downpours, but the primary concern continues to be water collecting in urban areas and locations with poor drainage. Strong northeast winds will also continue tonight. Peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph were observed along the coast early this morning, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph across Block Island and Cape Cod and the Islands. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph, occasionally reaching 60 mph, are expected to continue this afternoon, with the strongest winds along the immediate coast.

**Strong to Damaging Wind Gusts**

Tonight, the low-pressure system is expected to slowly track northward, but remain west of the 40/70 benchmark, a commonly used reference point south of New England, before making a sharp westward turn toward the New Jersey coast.

As the low pivots, a potent 925-millibar low-level jet, or LLJ, will strengthen to 60 to 70 knots. A low-level jet is a relatively narrow area of very strong winds several thousand feet above the ground. If some of those winds mix down to the surface, there could be another period of consistently stronger wind gusts, especially across the South Coast, Block Island, and portions of Connecticut.

Gusts of 45 to 60 mph are possible in these areas, with isolated higher gusts along the immediate coast. As the low shifts farther west toward New Jersey on Sunday, the low-level jet will weaken. Winds will turn more toward the east and east-northeast, with surface gusts decreasing to 30 to 45 mph.

The pressure difference across the region and the associated upper-level jet will gradually weaken as the low eventually loops back northeast and moves offshore. Winds will decrease as well, with gusts finally dropping below 30 mph by Monday night.

**Prolonged Period of Steady Rain, Heavy at Times**

Abundant moisture, favorable atmospheric dynamics, and some instability will maintain widespread rain through the remainder of the event. Additional low-level convergence, where air flows together and rises, along the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and Berkshires will continue to support periods of moderate to heavy rain.

High-resolution and global weather models indicate a broad area receiving 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized maximum amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible before the system and rain finally exit late Monday. The 48-hour HREF Probability Matched Mean, or PMM, which is a model-based estimate designed to better represent the expected distribution of precipitation, highlights Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts for potential rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches.

Because this is primarily a prolonged rainfall event rather than a widespread torrential downpour, the overall flash flood threat is somewhat limited by the lack of widespread extreme rainfall rates. However, the sheer volume of water will create significant concerns for urban and poor-drainage flooding, as well as rapid rises on small rivers and streams.

A Flood Watch has therefore been issued for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, where confidence is highest for storm totals of 5 to 7 inches.

**Coastal Flooding**

The prolonged period of strong northeast winds and high offshore seas will continue to produce beach erosion and coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles through Sunday. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level caused by the storm, is expected to reach 1 to 2 feet and could briefly approach 2.5 feet along east-facing, ocean-exposed shorelines.

Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect along the eastern Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod and the Islands, through the Sunday night high tide cycle. Consideration is being given to extending these warnings into the Monday morning high tide cycle.

The combination of elevated water levels and offshore seas of 15 to 25 feet will result in minor coastal flooding, with a few pockets of low-end moderate flooding possible during each high tide cycle. However, the most significant impact from this long-duration event is expected to be severe beach erosion because of the persistent strong northeast winds and large waves.

Astronomical tides, the normal rise and fall of the ocean caused by the gravitational pull of the moon and sun, peak this weekend. As a result, coastal impacts will remain a concern even as winds gradually weaken. Water may also have difficulty fully draining between successive high tide cycles, while heavy rainfall could further worsen drainage and flooding issues.

Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the south coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Although northeast winds are somewhat less favorable for coastal flooding in these areas, very large swells associated with the nor’easter to the south will propagate northward toward the coast. Falling atmospheric pressure will also contribute to higher water levels.

As a result, pockets of splashover and minor coastal flooding are expected, along with minor beach erosion through the weekend.

**Key Message 2, Improving Weather Tuesday and Beyond**

The long-duration weekend nor’easter will move east-northeast as the upper-level weather pattern becomes less amplified and blocking decreases. During the coming week, the upper-level flow becomes fairly west-to-east, or zonal, with a few weaker disturbances passing through during the middle to latter part of the week. These could bring a low chance of a light shower or two.

Marked improvement is expected Tuesday as the weakening nor’easter exits the region and winds shift to the northwest. This northwest flow will bring drier air into southern New England, ending any lingering early morning showers.

While atmospheric moisture will remain somewhat elevated into Tuesday afternoon, there will be little forcing, or atmospheric support for rising air, to produce additional precipitation. The latest guidance has slowed the clearing trend compared with previous forecasts, so clouds may remain through much of the afternoon before some breaks develop later in the day.

Northwest winds will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal for the date, although Tuesday will be noticeably warmer than the weekend. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

A mid-level ridge, an area of higher pressure in the middle levels of the atmosphere, will build across the southeastern United States this week. Surface high pressure will also build south of the region from Wednesday through Friday, leading to a stretch of quieter and warmer weather.

Weather models suggest a weak disturbance in the northern jet stream Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by another weak disturbance Thursday night into Friday. Atmospheric moisture Wednesday night into Thursday will remain below 1.2 inches and will not line up well with the strongest atmospheric forcing. Other than perhaps a brief light shower, clouds are expected to be more likely than significant precipitation.

Moisture increases to around 1.5 inches Thursday night as the second weak disturbance moves through, allowing a few light showers to potentially cross the region. No significant impacts are expected from either disturbance.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the middle and latter part of the week, although the latest guidance has become somewhat cooler compared with previous forecasts. Highs will generally return to the lower and middle 70s, with Thursday potentially being the warmest day, when highs could reach the middle to upper 70s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to turn notably cold, with lows generally in the 50s.