Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
402 PM EDT Friday, June 12, 2026

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes. The primary focus through this evening remains isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall and gusty winds.

**Key Messages**

1. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will bring torrential rainfall through this evening. Slow moving and repeated rounds of storms may cause localized flash flooding within the Flood Watch area. A few storms may also produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

2. Humidity decreases this weekend while temperatures remain warm, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

3. A cold front will cross the region Sunday, bringing showers and the potential for isolated strong thunderstorms.

4. High astronomical tides are expected this weekend. More seasonable weather is expected through much of the upcoming work week.

**Synopsis**

**Key Message 1 Description**

An unusually moist air mass remains in place across the region. This mornings weather balloon launch from Gray set a new record for atmospheric moisture for June 12, measuring 1.91 inches of precipitable water, a measure of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere for rainfall.

The atmosphere has become increasingly unstable this afternoon, providing fuel for thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms have remained somewhat isolated due to limited upper level support and weak wind shear, which refers to changing wind speed and direction with height. However, weather models continue to indicate a southwest to northeast corridor where converging winds will help focus additional thunderstorm development through this evening, particularly within the Flood Watch area.

These storms will move slowly and produce very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates approaching 3 inches per hour. Localized flash flooding is possible, and some locations could experience considerable flash flooding if multiple storms move over the same area. High resolution forecast guidance suggests localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches in as little as three hours.

While widespread severe weather is not expected, some storms could briefly produce strong downburst winds. A downburst occurs when rain cooled air rapidly descends and spreads outward upon reaching the ground, creating sudden damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorm activity should gradually decrease later this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

The cold front will move across the region between approximately 8 PM and 2 AM EDT, bringing another opportunity for thunderstorms. Atmospheric instability will decrease during the evening, limiting the overall severe weather threat. However, a few strong storms capable of producing damaging winds remain possible. The greatest concern continues to be additional rounds of heavy rainfall over areas that may have already received significant rain earlier in the evening.

**Key Message 2 Description**

A cold front will move offshore Saturday morning, allowing a drier air mass to move into the region on northwest winds. Dew points, a measure of atmospheric moisture, will fall into the 50s, making conditions feel much more comfortable.

Despite the lower humidity, downslope winds descending from higher terrain will help temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s south of the mountains.

A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued to highlight cold water safety concerns. Ocean temperatures remain in the 50s, even though air temperatures along the beaches may approach 90 degrees.

Very warm weather continues Sunday, with highs again reaching the 80s and lower 90s while humidity remains relatively comfortable, with dew points generally in the 50s and lower 60s.

**Key Message 3 Description**

Sunday will be another hot day ahead of an approaching cold front moving east from New York State.

High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s across interior western Maine, with upper 80s to lower 90s common across New Hampshire. Coastal locations will be somewhat cooler due to increasing southerly winds off the ocean.

Because humidity levels will remain relatively modest, heat index values should stay close to actual air temperatures.

Scattered showers are expected to develop across northern areas during the afternoon before progressing southward toward the coast during the evening. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible, with gusty winds serving as the primary threat.

Machine learning forecast guidance continues to indicate only a low risk of stronger storms, mainly across New Hampshire and interior western Maine. The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook has shifted the risk area slightly farther north, with a Marginal Risk covering portions of south central New Hampshire and a Slight Risk extending into Cheshire County.

Showers may continue overnight Sunday before ending Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures will generally fall into the 50s.

**Key Message 4 Description**

A broad upper level trough, an area of cooler air and lower pressure aloft, is expected to become established across the Northeast next week. This pattern will bring temperatures back closer to seasonal averages while also supporting occasional chances for showers.

Monday and Tuesday appear mostly dry, but shower chances are expected to increase by the middle and latter part of next week as several frontal boundaries move near or through the region.

Along the coast, high astronomical tides combined with a storm surge of up to one half foot may bring water levels close to minor coastal flood stage Saturday night, especially from Portland and points south.