Weather for New England and the Northeast

NWS Header: Boston/Norton MA
Date: Tuesday February 17 2026
Time: 1:03 PM EDT

Synopsis
A weak low pressure system passes out to sea on Wednesday, bringing a period of snow to the interior and a mix of rain and snow toward the coast. A more significant and complex storm system arrives Friday into Saturday with a variety of winter precipitation types. We are also monitoring a potentially powerful coastal storm for Sunday and Monday.

What Has Changed
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for western and central Massachusetts for Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is increasing confidence in the risk of snow and freezing rain Friday into Saturday. We are still watching a potential winter storm Sunday into Monday. At the very least, we may see potential coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts coast as well as marine impacts on the coastal waters.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Travel impacts from accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon and evening.
This remains a challenging forecast regarding what type of moisture falls and where the narrow band of snow sets up. However, we have more confidence that much of western and central Massachusetts will see 2 to 4 inches of snow Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Confidence is a bit lower farther east, including the Boston and Providence areas, since temperatures initially may be too warm to allow snow to accumulate. We think 1 to 3 inch totals are more likely in these areas. It is possible we will need to extend the Advisories into these areas with the Wednesday early morning forecast if things trend a bit colder.

High resolution computer models match our thinking, though some models suggest slightly higher totals while others show the heaviest snow shifting further south into Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. One specific experimental model is much warmer and would mean much less of an impact, but that seems to be the outlier. Trying to pinpoint exactly where heavy snow bands form in these setups is always difficult.

A weak low will pass off the coast and maintain a cold north to northeast wind across southern New England. Initially, the air is relatively mild, but as the precipitation arrives around midday as either light rain or light snow, we expect to see evaporative cooling (technically called wet bulb cooling), with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s degrees. Exactly how quickly this takes place is still a question, but we are more confident that the higher elevations of western and central Massachusetts will begin as snow.

In the lower elevations closer to the coast, even if it does change to snow quickly, the snowfall rates will be light. With temperatures hovering just above freezing, it will be tough to get accumulations right away. However, as we approach late afternoon and especially evening, that is when most of the accumulation will occur. Snow will taper off before midnight as the low pressure exits offshore.

Key Message 2: A system on Friday and Friday night will bring a mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain to southern New England while scattered snow showers linger into Saturday.
The active weather pattern continues late week. After a brief period of high pressure on Thursday, another storm system moves out of the Great Lakes and over New England Friday night into Saturday. Temperature profiles will be complex and need to be refined as we get closer and receive better high resolution data. It looks to be a mixed precipitation event as a warm front lifts north. This provides upward motion (lift) and creates a zone of sharp temperature contrasts (frontogenesis) a few thousand feet above the ground.

Computer models show a period of strong upward motion in the area of the atmosphere where snowflakes grow most efficiently (the Dendritic Growth Zone or DGZ) on Friday. This could allow for some decent snowfall rates, especially further north. Closer to the south coast, marginal temperatures may lead to a mostly rain event. Meanwhile, a layer of warm air higher up (a mid level warm nose) introduces the likelihood of freezing rain for parts of the interior. Looking at it from a statistical perspective, group model forecasts (ensembles) presently show a 15 to 40 percent chance of 4 or more inches of snow through Saturday along and south of the Mass Pike, with a 40 to 55 percent chance to the north. This comes with the potential for several hundredths of an inch of freezing rain. The bulk of the precipitation looks to fall before sunrise on Saturday, but scattered snow showers continue during the day.

Key Message 3: Watching a potential winter storm Sunday into Monday.
Guidance continues to show a potentially significant winter storm developing off the East Coast Sunday into Monday. As usual at this time range, we are seeing a large spread in possible storm tracks with anything from a miss out to sea to a direct hit on southern New England.

All of this uncertainty ties to how quickly a disturbance in the northern atmosphere (a short wave) can strengthen as it tracks toward the East Coast. This depends on the strength of a high pressure ridge over the North Atlantic. A stronger ridge would help the storm strengthen more quickly and tilt in a way that pulls it closer to the coast (a negative tilt), allowing the coastal storm to track closer to southern New England with higher impacts. Conversely, a weaker ridge would keep the storm moving out to sea (a positive tilt). It is also interesting to note that AI versions of the major global models, which have performed well this winter, bring the storm close enough to impact at least the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands.

Right now, odds favor at least some impact to Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, if not more of the area. Keep in mind we are several days out and probably wont see any certain trends until Thursday at the earliest. So for now, expect to see the usual variations in the models. It is just way too soon to lock into any one solution.

One thing that we are becoming more confident in is the potential for coastal flooding and marine impacts, even if the storm stays further offshore. We are approaching higher natural tides Sunday and Monday, and much of the eastern Massachusetts coast could be vulnerable to at least minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. On the coastal waters, there is the potential for northeast gale force winds and rough seas.