Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 319 PM EDT
Sat Oct 3 2026**

**What has Changed**

No significant changes to the forecast.

**Key Messages**

Beautiful and refreshing fall weather continues into Sunday, though clouds increase during the afternoon. Showers arrive late Sunday afternoon and evening and become widespread Sunday night, potentially lingering into the Monday morning commute.

A sharp temperature drop is expected for the start of the week, followed by a return to dry, fall-like conditions with seasonable temperatures.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Fall weather continues, followed by rain**

Beautiful fall conditions are in place this afternoon as a true fall air mass has settled over southern New England. This is a notable change from the lower 80s and dewpoints in the 60s on Friday. Dewpoints are now in the 40s, making the air feel much more comfortable and refreshing. Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the 60s.

For tonight, high pressure remains in control with mainly clear skies. Winds will not completely calm down, but enough cooling is expected for overnight lows to fall well into the 40s. A few locations in the Berkshires could briefly reach the upper 30s.

High pressure moves across northern New England Sunday, producing another quiet start to the day. Clouds will increase from southwest to northeast by early afternoon ahead of a weak area of low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The forecast atmosphere at about 925 millibars, a level roughly a few thousand feet above the surface, will be slightly cooler Sunday. This supports afternoon highs generally in the lower 60s. Sunday will not be a washout, but clouds will become more numerous during the afternoon.

Showers could arrive as early as 3 to 5 PM, especially across western and southern portions of the region. The better chance for more widespread rainfall comes after 7 PM, continuing through the overnight hours into early Monday morning.

The highest confidence for measurable rainfall is across areas closest to the south coast, Cape Cod and the Islands. Heavy rain is unlikely, as most of the stronger shower activity should remain well south of Nantucket Sunday night into Monday morning. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out with some showers south of Nantucket, although the probability remains low at less than 20 percent.

Rainfall amounts will generally range from a few hundredths to around one tenth of an inch for many locations, with one to two tenths of an inch favored south of Route 44. Amounts could approach one quarter of an inch across Nantucket.

Rain should begin ending Monday morning, although the timing could result in a wet commute to school and work across portions of southern New England. Otherwise, there are no significant wind concerns with this system. Easterly winds will develop as the weak low passes nearby Sunday night.

**Key Message 2, Much colder weather arrives early next week**

A deep Canadian low pressure system to the north moves eastward heading into the start of next week, while strong high pressure builds in behind it. This will allow much colder air to spread across New England.

Forecast guidance continues to show the possibility of the 540 dam line, a measure of atmospheric thickness often used to identify colder air, approaching southern New England. At this time, it generally remains across Maine and New Hampshire.

Temperatures at about 925 millibars, several thousand feet above the surface, could fall to around 32 degrees late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. They may only rise to around 41 degrees Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This setup supports daytime highs barely reaching 60 degrees, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s. Tuesday night could be especially chilly as the cold air settles in and winds diminish.

The low pressure system continues eastward, allowing winds higher in the atmosphere to turn more southwest. This southwest flow will eventually extend closer to the surface as well.

High pressure at the surface moves away toward Thursday, while another area of high pressure builds toward the Great Lakes. With the return of southwest winds and drier conditions, more seasonable temperatures develop during the second half of the week. Temperatures at about 925 millibars climb back toward 50 degrees, supporting afternoon highs generally in the 60s and approaching 70 degrees by Thursday and Friday.