Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME**

**155 AM EDT, Sunday, August 2, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes with this forecast update.

**Key Messages**

1. A front will drift through the region late today through Monday. Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely, but heavier precipitation amounts will be more localized.

2. Humid conditions will persist through the remainder of the week with chances for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

**Synopsis**

A warm front is moving toward the forecast area early this morning. Along the coast, marine fog has lingered and is expected to continue spreading inland toward the lower Kennebec Valley by early morning. After sunrise, some breaks in the low clouds are expected, but much of the cloud cover should remain offshore through the day.

A few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out today, although the better chance for widespread precipitation is expected to hold off until tonight and Monday. Fog is expected to become more widespread again around sunset and continue overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region early Monday. Forecast models continue to differ on where the heaviest precipitation will occur, but the greatest chance for more than one half inch of precipitation is across southern New Hampshire. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), a tool that highlights unusually significant weather compared to normal conditions, continues to indicate an increasing signal for heavier rainfall through Monday. Most of New Hampshire has at least an 80 percent chance among forecast ensemble members of receiving seasonably heavy rainfall.

The best opportunity for meaningful rainfall appears to be across far southern New Hampshire and the North Country, where thunderstorms may develop ahead of the approaching front. West central Maine currently appears to have the lowest chance of significant rainfall. Overall, forecast guidance continues to indicate most areas will receive less than 1 inch of precipitation, with many locations closer to one half inch or less.

Forecasters will also be watching for the potential of a few stronger thunderstorms on Monday. Because the cold front is expected to move through during the warmest part of the day, conditions may become more favorable for thunderstorm development. High resolution forecast models are showing increasing thunderstorm activity along the front. Machine learning guidance also suggests a possibility of severe thunderstorms, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed part of the forecast area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. However, confidence remains limited because widespread fog and cloud cover could reduce daytime heating. For now, scattered thunderstorms remain the most likely forecast.

Some showers may linger Monday night as the upper level trough and cold front move east of the area. Cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures relatively warm, with lows in the low to middle 60s.

By Tuesday, the Bermuda High will begin influencing the region again, bringing mainly dry weather with afternoon temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Upper level high pressure will continue into Wednesday before shifting east, allowing a prolonged southwest wind pattern to develop. This will keep humidity elevated through at least Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to gradually increase, with some locations approaching 90 degrees by the end of the week. Combined with the higher humidity, it will feel even warmer, although no significant or dangerous heat is currently expected.

Looking ahead, precipitation chances will mainly depend on daytime heating, nearby stalled fronts, and small disturbances moving through the upper atmosphere. As a result, scattered afternoon thunderstorms remain possible, but widespread rainfall appears unlikely. Many locations may continue experiencing drier than normal conditions.