Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA**

**322 AM EDT Sunday July 19 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes. Forecasters continue to monitor the potential for heavy downpours Tuesday and Wednesday, along with hazardous marine conditions.

**Key Messages**

* Pleasant and much less humid today and Monday, although dangerous rip currents are expected today on south-facing beaches.

* Active weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night. Another round of soaking downpours is possible, along with potentially hazardous marine conditions and high surf.

* Drying out late in the week with a return to more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity into next weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Pleasant and much less humid today and Monday, although dangerous rip currents are expected today on south-facing beaches.**

Early this morning, a few lingering showers and thunderstorms remain across Cape Cod and the Islands, while a strong cold front continues moving east through central New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. A cold front is the leading edge of cooler, drier air, and its passage before sunrise will bring northwest winds of up to 25 mph, clearing skies, and rapidly dropping humidity levels.

Humidity levels, measured by dewpoint temperatures, have already fallen into the middle 50s across northern New York and Vermont. As daytime heating mixes the atmosphere, dewpoints may drop into the upper 40s across parts of southern New England, making the air feel exceptionally comfortable for mid July.

Expect mostly sunny skies today. Temperatures about 5,000 feet above the ground, known as 850 millibar temperatures, remain relatively cool, but the strong July sunshine and warming effect of air flowing downhill on the eastern side of the higher terrain should allow afternoon highs to reach the upper 70s to the lower and middle 80s. The recent smoky conditions have also cleared, resulting in much better visibility.

If you are heading to south-facing beaches, waves generated by yesterdays southwest winds will continue producing swells of 4 to 7 feet. These swells will create a high risk of dangerous rip currents, and a Rip Current Statement remains in effect today. Aside from the beach hazards, conditions should be among the nicest of the summer season.

High pressure will continue building into the region tonight before shifting just south of New England on Monday. Winds will become lighter, and overnight cooling may allow areas of patchy fog to develop in places that received significant rainfall, although the continuing drop in humidity may limit fog formation. Monday will be slightly warmer with sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.

**Key Message 2, Active weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night. Another round of soaking downpours is possible, along with potentially hazardous marine conditions and high surf.**

Some forecast details still need to be refined, but confidence is increasing that warmer, more humid, and more unsettled weather will return Tuesday and continue into Wednesday night.

A strong disturbance in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will pull tropical moisture northward from the northeastern Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front. As this system moves through, increasing moisture and lifting of the air should make Tuesday and Tuesday night the most favorable period for heavy downpours.

Forecast model ensembles indicate a 40 to 70 percent chance of at least 1 inch of precipitation over a 24 hour period, with the greatest potential across southeastern New England. The chance of receiving 2 inches or more remains below 30 percent.

Winds higher in the atmosphere will also strengthen, but it remains uncertain whether conditions will become favorable for severe thunderstorms. Current machine learning forecast guidance continues to indicate only a limited severe weather threat. By Wednesday, daytime heating should support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms beneath an upper level trough before the system gradually moves away Wednesday night.

Marine conditions are also expected to deteriorate. Southwest winds will strengthen Tuesday night into Wednesday, and forecast ensembles indicate a 40 to 70 percent chance of gale force winds over the coastal waters. Gale force winds are sustained winds of 39 to 54 mph. Gale Watches may eventually be needed if confidence continues to increase.

Seas are expected to build to as high as 12 feet across the southern outer coastal waters, creating hazardous conditions for mariners and increasing the potential for high surf along south-facing beaches.

**Key Message 3, Drying out late in the week with a return to more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity into next weekend.**

A broad area of cooler air circulating around an upper level weather system, known as cyclonic flow, will remain over the region late this week into next weekend. At the surface, however, high pressure should provide mainly dry weather, comfortable humidity levels, and seasonable temperatures through next weekend.