Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA**
**212 AM EDT Wednesday, July 29, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes.

**Key Messages**

* Prolonged, heavy rainfall continues Wednesday leading to potential street and flash flooding, especially across western New England.

* Cloudy weather into Friday with onshore flow and off and on light rain showers, along with cooler than normal high temperatures.

* Generally dry weather with seasonably warm temperatures, but turning unsettled late in the weekend and especially into early next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Prolonged heavy rainfall continues Wednesday leading to potential street and flash flooding, especially across western New England**

The period with the greatest flood threat across southern New England is expected from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Meteorologists are tracking an unusually strong upper level low pressure system that is closing off over New York. A blocking area of high pressure over the North Atlantic is slowing the system down, allowing it to remain over the region much longer than usual. This prolonged setup will produce an extended period of rainfall that is uncommon for late July.

Several atmospheric ingredients are coming together to support heavy rain. Air is rising through a deep layer of the atmosphere while strengthening low pressure at the surface pulls moist Atlantic air inland. A low level jet, a ribbon of fast moving winds about a mile above the ground, will increase to 30 to 40 knots. As this moist air is forced uphill across the Berkshires and Worcester Hills, rainfall will become even heavier.

Bands of rain will also have the potential to repeatedly move over the same locations, a process known as training. Combined with an atmosphere containing exceptionally high moisture, with precipitable water values exceeding 1.7 inches, this creates favorable conditions for excessive rainfall.

Current forecast guidance suggests isolated locations could receive between 5 and 7 inches of rain where the heaviest bands develop, although pinpointing exactly where that will occur remains impossible until the event unfolds. Most communities are more likely to receive between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation.

The highest concern across western southern New England is this morning through early afternoon, when rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible. The threat gradually shifts east into eastern Massachusetts later this afternoon and continues into the evening and early overnight hours.

The greatest flash flooding concern during the morning commute will be across the Berkshire slopes and Hartford area. During the evening commute, the focus shifts toward the Providence to Boston corridor.

While rivers and streams will continue to be monitored, the primary concern remains rapid flash flooding and street flooding rather than widespread river flooding.

By Thursday, the deepest moisture and strongest storm energy move offshore, but the slow moving low pressure system remains nearby. This will keep conditions damp with occasional light showers throughout the day.

Persistent easterly winds, thick cloud cover, and rainfall will keep high temperatures in the low to middle 70s on both Wednesday and Thursday.

**Key Message 2, Cloudy weather into Friday with onshore flow and off and on light rain showers, along with cooler than normal high temperatures**

The slow moving low pressure system near southern Connecticut gradually weakens and begins moving offshore on Friday before finally departing Friday night.

Cloudy skies and a persistent northeast to north wind will continue through the remainder of the workweek. There is some optimism that breaks in the clouds may develop later Friday, but skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy overall.

Periods of light showers and drizzle will continue at times as moisture remains trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 50s into the low 60s.

Friday high temperatures remain somewhat uncertain. Areas that receive some sunshine, especially across western Massachusetts and Connecticut, could reach the low 80s. Most locations, however, will remain in the 70s, while Cape Cod could stay in the upper 60s because of persistent clouds and onshore winds.

**Key Message 3, Generally dry weather with seasonably warm temperatures, but turning unsettled late in the weekend and especially into early next week**

Weak high pressure should provide a brief return to drier weather during the weekend, although low clouds may linger across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Forecast confidence decreases later in the weekend. Computer forecast models generally agree that another upper level trough may develop over the Ohio Valley while southwest winds aloft return to New England. This pattern could allow showers and thunderstorms to redevelop.

Some forecast models keep most of the weekend dry, while others bring scattered showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon, with additional chances early next week.

At this time, the forecast favors generally dry weather through much of the weekend, followed by increasing chances for unsettled weather early next week.