Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
715 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026**

**What has Changed**

A couple of marine and coastal headlines have been issued for the holiday weekend. For boaters, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued and is in effect from 2 AM to 8 PM Sunday. For beachgoers, a Rip Current Statement is in effect for east-facing beaches and the islands from 7 AM to 8 PM through much of Sunday.

**Key Messages**

A mainly dry day is expected except along and east of the I-495 corridor, where there is a chance for afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.

Fall-like conditions arrive Sunday, followed by more seasonable weather for Labor Day. A gradual warm-up is expected throughout the week, with continued dry weather through at least Wednesday or Thursday.

There is an elevated risk for dangerous rip currents through the holiday weekend, especially Sunday into Labor Day.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Saturday showers and thunderstorms**

The main weather maker for the next day or so will be a broad cutoff low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes. This means some unsettled weather is possible during the start of the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Saturday should begin on a pleasant note with mainly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 70s. At the same time, cooler air higher in the atmosphere will move in, with temperatures at the 925 millibar level falling to roughly 54 to 57 degrees. This combination will create steep low-level lapse rates, meaning temperatures will decrease fairly quickly with increasing height above the ground. That setup will help afternoon clouds develop and could lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

Surface-based CAPE, which measures the amount of energy available to thunderstorms, is expected to increase to around 300 to 500 J/kg. This is enough instability to support some thunderstorms, although widespread severe weather is not expected.

High-resolution forecast guidance shows an inverted trough moving across the area from northeast to southwest between 2 PM and 6 PM. An inverted trough is an elongated area of lower pressure that can provide a focus for rising air, showers, and thunderstorms. This feature should increase the chances for more organized precipitation during that period.

The latest National Blend of Models appears to have a good handle on these changes, with hourly chances for precipitation increasing to around 45 to 50 percent across interior areas. This will not be a washout, but a brief period of heavy rain is possible as showers move through. Any lingering showers should quickly diminish this evening as daytime heating fades.

Saturday night will turn cooler, with light winds and mostly clear skies providing good conditions for radiational cooling, which simply means the ground loses heat efficiently after sunset. Overnight lows should generally fall into the lower to middle 50s, with upper 40s possible in favorable locations such as local river valleys.

**Key Message 2, cooler Sunday followed by a warm-up**

Saturday night through the middle of next week should feature generally quiet weather, with little opportunity for rainfall.

The 500 millibar forecast shows an omega ridge centered across the middle of the country, with a closed mid-level low centered over Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon. An omega ridge is a large area of high pressure aloft that resembles the Greek letter omega on weather maps. The ridge gradually flattens, with more west-to-east, or semi-zonal, airflow developing along the coast by Tuesday. Shortwave troughing is then expected late in the week across the northeastern states, which could bring the next chance for active weather to southern New England.

At the surface, high pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday, with the air mass originating in northern Canada. Surface high pressure remains the dominant feature through most of the forecast period, supporting a stretch of dry weather.

Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground will be cooler Sunday because of the mid-level low east of New England. Temperatures around the 925 millibar level will be only about 46 to 50 degrees. With daytime mixing, this should support afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday will therefore feel very much like autumn, with a mix of sun and clouds, northerly winds, and dew points in the lower 50s. Dew point is a measure of the amount of moisture in the air, with lower values generally indicating a drier and more comfortable feel. Winds should not be overly strong, but the combination of cooler temperatures and lower humidity will make for a crisp day.

Sunday night should again feature good radiational cooling as high pressure settles across the region, although temperatures will depend on how quickly the winds diminish. Colder forecast guidance was favored for Sunday night, bringing temperatures down into the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of southern New England. Urban areas such as Boston should remain milder, with temperatures in the middle 50s.

For those not quite ready for fall weather, warmer conditions return during the week as warm air advection develops aloft. Warm air advection simply means warmer air is being transported into the region. Temperatures around the 925 millibar level rise to roughly 57 to 64 degrees, supporting near-seasonable afternoon highs in the upper 70s for Labor Day, followed by upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday into the middle part of next week.

Humidity should remain tolerable, with dew points generally in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Labor Day itself looks quiet and dry, although the risk for dangerous rip currents will remain high along ocean beaches.

**Key Message 3, dangerous rip currents**

Persistent northeast winds, long-period ocean swell, and offshore seas of 4 to 7 feet will continue to support an elevated risk for dangerous rip currents through the holiday weekend, especially Sunday into Labor Day along east-facing ocean beaches.

With otherwise quiet weather expected, anyone heading to the beach should remember that ocean conditions can still be hazardous even when the weather is sunny and calm on land. Check with local beach staff or lifeguards regarding current ocean conditions before entering the water.