These details are provided by the NWS offices in Gray Maine, and the surrounding NWS offices in New York, and Massachusetts.  I have modified some of the technical stuff to help make it more understandable for the average reader. Spelling and grammer issues can be directed to the NWS office in Gray Maine.

Last update: 3/23 - 4:40 PM

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT:
High Impact Weather Potential: A few areas of dense fog persist into this evening...then minimal.

Pattern: Shortwave pinwheeling south of James Bay sits atop a surface reflection with an occluded front trailing to a triple point just north of New England with a warm front now pushing north and east across our area. This has been responsible for an area of rain showers bringing generally light rainfall to the region. The shortwave will continue to move east through tonight with low pressure taking shape along the triple point and driving a cold front through our region. This will take the overhead showers south of the region with a drying trend overnight. Thus...precipitation end times and the evolution of fog and overnight lows will be the primary forecast focus.

Through this Evening: Rain and snow showers will continue ahead of an arriving surface cold front with regional radar mosaic showing an area of showers over eastern NY poised to cross the southern half of our forecast area which really hasn't seen much of any rain yet. Further north and east there are some areas of dense fog... which will continue for a few more hours before improving this evening. 8 pm temperatures will range from the mid 30s over the mountains to the lower 40s in the foothills with upper 40s and even some lower 50s over southern NH sneaking up the ME coast. Webcams across northern areas reveal light snow accumulations with generally wet main roads...but there will likely remain some slick travel on the back roads.

Tonight: Prefrontal showers continue through about 11pm before pushing offshore as the surface cold front crosses the region with westerly winds shifting northwest and dry advection developing. Robust cold advection overnight should keep most areas mixed with 30- 40kt winds at H9 suggesting some gusts 20-30 mph will be possible overnight...especially along the hilltops. The drying airmass should allow for partial clearing downwind of the mountains with upslope clouds and some snow showers further north. Consensus lows in the mid 20s north to lower/mid 30s south look good.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern: High pressure will build towards the region on Friday with northwest flow continuing across northern New England. This high will crest overhead Friday night with the short term forecast period remaining very quiet weather-wise, as a result, with focus on winds Friday and overnight lows Friday night.

Friday: Dry cP airmass overhead on Friday with Precipitable Water Values around 0.25" and T8s falling through the single digits below 0C to around -10C in the mountains. CU rule supports significant upslope cloudiness in the mountains with partly sunny skies in the downslope regime to the south and east. The cold advection will ensure good boundary layer mixing but the overall gradient is not that strong...with H9 winds 15-25kts...so expect northwesterly breezes 10-20 mph through the day. As for temperatures...T9s will range from 0C across the south to around -5C in the mountains. This should keep highs in the 30s in the mountains...with some downslope assistance and more sun supporting mid-upper 40s to the south and east with a few spots near the MA border possibly touching 50.

Friday Night: The lower half of the troposphere will continue to dry out as high pressure arrives from the west. Given this...and the likelihood of any significant cloudiness associated with the weekend system just beginning to arrive by daybreak...the scenario looks good for radiational cooling. Statistical guidance supports teens in the mountains with 20s to the south and east...though some of the favored cool spots to the south /e.g. IZG and SFM/ will likely also dip into the teens under clear skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A system arrives Saturday with overrunning precipitation falling in a cool environment at the surface. This looks like a typical wintry mix system with rain at warmer parts of southern NH and coastal ME. Not far from here, sleet and snow mixes in across the interior before mostly snow in the mountains. What snow does fall will likely be heavy and wet as surface temps hover at or around freezing. Primary low that moves through Michigan and the Great Lakes appears have more going for it in the way of forcing, moisture, and cool air to support wintry precip on the northern and western flanks. While ensembles do depict a secondary low pressure developing in the Gulf of Maine, its strength is in question as well as, if it helps or hinders precipitation is in question.

How the arriving low and mid level jet interacts with the downstream ridge will also tell how much moisture gets pointed towards the region. Current guidance has a southerly IVT stream shearing off to the east, losing much of its northerly component by the time it is along the east coast. Even if the EPS depicts a quicker coastal low evolution than the GEFS, this moisture may be cut off from enhancing precip across the interior. While at least a half inch Precipitable Water Values are high confidence, amts closer to a inch remain in southern New England. Combine this with the weakening band of forcing between the two lows and the forecast trends toward an initial push of heavier precip Saturday evening and overnight, with lighter amounts into Sunday. 700Mb RH values(Relative Humidity) begin to decrease after, with precip lightening into Sunday.

As far as precip types, sleet and snow appear to be the biggest winter factors. Model soundings, while deterministic at this point, do show fairly broad consensus of the elevated warm layer being weak enough to keep sleet mentioned over freezing rain. This couples with a deep cool layer below, and surface temps at or around freezing to support a period of sleet. These surface temps near freezing will also work to keep some of the snow that falls low ratio, perhaps with a heavy/wet consistency. Only mention of freezing rain may come after the loss of cloud ice and at higher elevations where the cold layer won?Äôt be deep enough to refreeze to sleet.

Sleet probabilities are greatest across central NH into the Lakes Region of Maine, with around a quarter inch of sleet possible in central NH to the White Mountains. Along the coast, snow begins initially Saturday afternoon, but will gradually mix with sleet and rain as the evening progresses. Light snow accums can?Äôt be ruled out for the coast and interior. However, with the main event flanked by days with highs in the mid to upper 40s, ground temps may be warm enough to prevent much accum outside of peak rates. For the better chance of accumulating snow, the foothills and mountains stand out. Even here though, snow ratios hover around 10:1 or less, with totals trending lighter around 2-4 inches. It will be breezy Sunday as these systems exit to the north.

High pressure will begin to push into the region Monday with mostly dry conditions into Tuesday. Temperatures will be seasonable, in the mid to upper 40s for much of the coast and interior.

For another possible weather system mid week, there remains a breadth of solutions. Thus went with NBM(The National Blend of Models is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance) consensus bringing a chance of precipitation to the area Wed/Thurs. For precipitation, ensemble members are boom or bust with less than half of members from EPS/GEFS supporting high values of precipitation, and the rest depicting almost no storm at all. Thus can safely say there remains low confidence in a storm outcome next week.