Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**501 AM EDT Saturday, June 13, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

The Dense Fog Advisory has been updated for early this morning. Otherwise, there are few changes to the forecast over the next several days as forecast model agreement remains good.

**Key Messages**

1. Humidity decreases this weekend while temperatures remain warm, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s today and Sunday. Dense fog is possible across far southern Maine early this morning.

2. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and may bring some strong thunderstorms.

3. Seasonable weather returns for much of the work week.

4. High astronomical tides continue into early next week.

**Synopsis**

A cold front moves through the area this morning, bringing drier air and lower humidity. Another cold front arrives Sunday with the potential for thunderstorms. More typical June weather follows for much of next week before another system approaches late in the week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

Locally dense fog across the coastal plain will likely persist through sunrise. Conditions are expected to improve as a front moves through this morning and west winds develop.

Aside from the fog, today will be significantly drier with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will still climb well into the 80s, with some locations approaching 90 degrees. Because humidity levels will be much lower than yesterday, it should feel more comfortable. In fact, heat index values are expected to remain lower than the actual air temperatures.

**Key Message 2 Description**

Sunday continues to look like the last truly hot day before a return to more seasonable weather. Forecast guidance has performed well with temperatures recently, supporting highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s in many areas. Mixing of the atmosphere is expected to bring some drier air down from higher levels, preventing humidity from becoming excessively uncomfortable. Some locations may approach Heat Advisory criteria, and trends will continue to be monitored.

Forecast models continue to suggest the development of a prefrontal trough, an area of lower pressure ahead of the main cold front. The strongest thunderstorm activity associated with the cold front may not arrive until late evening, which is less favorable for severe weather. However, high-resolution forecast models continue to indicate isolated thunderstorms developing across northern areas and western New Hampshire during the afternoon and early evening.

These storms will need to be watched closely. Atmospheric conditions are expected to provide enough instability and wind shear, changes in wind speed and direction with height, to support organized thunderstorms and a few severe storms.

Colorado State University machine learning guidance continues to indicate some severe weather potential across the region, primarily related to damaging winds. This includes both straight-line wind damage and a low risk of tornadoes. While tornadoes are not considered the most likely threat, forecast soundings indicate enough low-level wind rotation to support favorable storm structures for isolated tornado development. As a result, the threat cannot be completely ruled out.

More likely, dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere will enhance evaporative cooling within thunderstorms, helping produce strong downdrafts and potentially damaging wind gusts. The region remains within Marginal and Slight Risk areas in the latest Storm Prediction Center Day 3 outlook. Thunderstorms remain in the forecast, but stronger wording will wait until confidence increases regarding daytime storm development.

**Key Message 3 Description**

There has been little change in forecast guidance regarding a return to seasonable weather next week. Once the cold front clears the coast, possibly not until Monday morning, daytime temperatures should generally range from 75 to 85 degrees.

Nighttime temperatures will be comfortable, mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Some northern valleys may even drop into the 40s on a few nights.

Humidity and temperatures will gradually increase again later in the week ahead of another approaching trough, an elongated area of lower atmospheric pressure. This may allow temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across parts of southern New Hampshire and coastal western Maine.

As the week progresses, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms driven by daytime heating will become more common, although widespread organized severe weather is not expected. A larger weather system is forecast to move through the Northeast Friday or Saturday, bringing a better chance for numerous showers and thunderstorms along a cold front and the next opportunity for widespread rainfall.

**Key Message 4 Description**

High astronomical tides, combined with storm surge of up to one-half foot, may bring total water levels close to minor coastal flood thresholds around times of high tide through early next week. Coastal residents should monitor forecasts for any flood-related updates.