Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA\
221 PM EST Thursday November 12, 2026

What Has Changed

There are no significant changes to the overall forecast. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for Friday afternoon high tide along north-facing beaches of Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound. Some minor splashover and very minor coastal flooding are possible.

Key Messages

\- Widespread rain will move across the region this evening, changing to wet snow across higher elevations before tapering off early Friday. Snow accumulations should be very minor, with the greatest chance across the northern Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Lingering rain Friday afternoon will mainly affect Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, especially near the south coast.

\- Cooler, cloudy weather with northwest breezes is expected this weekend. Most areas will remain dry, although scattered, hit-or-miss showers are possible Saturday afternoon.

\- A prolonged stretch of dry weather is expected early to mid next week, accompanied by a warming trend.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Rain Changes to Wet Snow in Higher Elevations

Aside from a few isolated showers across southern New England this afternoon, mainly over interior areas, dry weather has dominated. Despite an increasingly strong easterly to southeasterly low-level jet, weather balloon data and atmospheric profiles show considerable dry air near the ground, helping to limit precipitation so far.

That is expected to change this evening as low pressure moves offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast. A stronger low-level jet and increasing atmospheric lift will bring widespread rain into the region.

Atmospheric temperatures will become cold enough overnight for rain to change to wet snow across the higher elevations of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. However, the period of accumulating snow should be relatively short.

A disturbance moving across southern Quebec will help push the storm system farther south, limiting the amount of precipitation reaching southern New England. This means most of the precipitation should end early to mid-morning Friday, particularly north of Interstate 90.

Snow accumulations are expected to be minor, generally a coating to perhaps 1 or 2 inches across the higher elevations, mainly above 1,000 feet. The greatest chance for accumulation will be near 1,500 feet along the eastern slopes of the Berkshires.

Little in the way of travel problems is expected. However, a few secondary roads at higher elevations could briefly become slushy, especially around and above 1,000 feet.

As the storm remains suppressed farther south, any lingering rain Friday afternoon should be mainly confined to Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, particularly near the south coast. If some of the precipitation becomes briefly heavy, a few snowflakes could mix in, but no accumulation or travel impacts are expected.

Friday will otherwise be a raw and chilly day, with gusty northerly winds and afternoon temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Clouds may linger Friday night as the upper-level weather pattern continues to circulate around the departing storm system. A few isolated showers are possible along the far southeastern New England coast, but most areas should remain dry. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s, with lingering clouds helping to keep temperatures from dropping too quickly.

Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Friday

Gusty northerly winds combined with astronomically high tides could produce some splashover and very minor coastal flooding along north-facing beaches of Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound.

No significant impacts are expected. Any minor flooding or splashover should be short-lived, generally lasting no more than an hour on either side of high tide.

Key Message 2: Cool and Mostly Cloudy Weekend

Following Friday's storm, southern New England will remain under a cool and moist weather pattern. This will keep skies mostly cloudy, with occasional breaks of sunshine and persistent northwest breezes.

An upper-level disturbance is expected to move southward through New England Saturday afternoon into early evening. This feature will increase atmospheric moisture and provide some additional lift, potentially producing scattered showers.

These showers should be hit-or-miss, meaning many communities may remain completely dry while others experience a brief passing shower. Any showers that develop are expected to have little impact.

With cooler air moving into the region and mostly cloudy skies, Saturday will feel chilly for mid-November. High temperatures should reach the lower to middle 40s across the lower elevations, with upper 30s to around 40 degrees in the Berkshires and Worcester and Tolland Hills.

Sunday should be slightly milder, with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 40s in the lower elevations and lower to middle 40s across higher terrain.

Key Message 3: Dry Weather and Warming Trend Next Week

Forecast models are showing strong agreement that the weather pattern will become more settled early next week. Rising heights in the middle levels of the atmosphere indicate that a warmer and more stable weather pattern will begin taking hold.

This pattern will also favor surface high pressure, helping to keep precipitation away from southern New England for several days.

Temperatures should gradually climb from Monday through Wednesday, with the warming trend potentially continuing beyond that.

By Wednesday, afternoon highs are expected to rebound into the upper 50s to middle 60s, approximately 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures could end up a couple of degrees warmer if the dry weather pattern becomes firmly established.

Overall, after a chilly and unsettled end to the week and weekend, southern New England is heading toward a much milder and drier stretch of weather next week.