Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
157 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

What Has Changed
Flood watch has been cancelled. Small craft advisories for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay have also been taken down as conditions begin to improve.

Key Messages

Slowly improving weather overnight and Tuesday as the noreaster weakens and moves away

Warm and Dry conditions arrive Wednesday through Friday followed by a chance for rainy and unsettled conditions this weekend

Discussion

Slowly improving weather overnight and Tuesday as the noreaster weakens and moves away.

Although the low level swirl around the center of the noreaster south of Long Island looks impressive on satellite imagery, the storm is quickly weakening as it is starting to move more quickly to the northeast. Still a good amount of moisture, wrapped around the circulation, producing a fairly large area of light rainfall. However as the dynamics weaken, the rainfall intensity is also on a downward trend. Expect most areas will see less than 0.5 inches of additional precipitation from this point forward.
Models are all in good agreement in taking the low across the Cape overnight and then into the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday. Surface winds will slowly transition from NNE to NNW and then NW by Tuesday morning, except across our southern coastal waters and Nantucket, which will see winds go from the SE to SW and eventually W since the low center will pass north of those areas.

Model forecast cross sections indicate low level moisture will be slow to leave tomorrow, so expect a generally mostly cloudy day. Better chances for some afternoon sunshine will be across western areas. There is no pool of cold air that will come in behind the noreaster, and in fact upper level temperatures at 2,500 feet will be a little warmer than they were today. So given that and some breaks of sunshine, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s degrees for most, and a few locations, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, could hit 70 degrees.

Also, given the downward trends in precipitation, have gone ahead and cancelled the Flood Watch. Although some minor flooding is still expected along portions of the Taunton River, we do not anticipate any increase in risk for flooding across the area.

Warm and Dry conditions arrive Wednesday through Friday followed by a chance for rainy and unsettled conditions this weekend.

A mid level ridge builds across the southeastern continental United States this week, while surface high pressure settles south of the region Wednesday through Friday, leading to a stretch of quieter and warmer weather. Guidance hints at a weak northern stream atmospheric disturbance Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by a secondary disturbance Thursday night into Friday.
Precipitable water values, which measure overall moisture in the atmosphere, Wednesday night into Thursday remain below 1.2 inches and do not align particularly well with the best atmospheric lifting energy. Outside of a brief light shower, would anticipate more clouds than anything. Atmospheric moisture values increase to around 1.5 inches Thursday night with the passage of the secondary weak disturbance, when a few light showers could brush the region. No significant impacts are anticipated with either disturbance.

Temperatures trend warmer through the middle and latter half of the week, though the latest guidance has trended somewhat cooler compared to previous runs. Highs generally return to the lower and middle 70s degrees, with Thursday potentially the warmest day as temperatures reach the middle to upper 70s degrees. No notable cold is expected overnight, with lows generally falling into the 50s degrees.

Forecast becomes a bit more interesting by late next week as a strong continental high pressure system arrives from SE Canada. Guidance shows a rather sharp drop in temperatures with temperatures around 5,000 feet falling from 59 to 63 degrees Friday down to 39 to 43 degrees on Saturday. Beyond this front, guidance is beginning to come into better agreement with depicting a strong area of low pressure across SE Canada on Sunday. There remains a variety of solutions with different computer forecast models depicting storm development along a frontal boundary near the Carolinas and others leaning more towards a strong frontal boundary.

In any case, the second half of the weekend looks wet and unsettled. Behind this feature, guidance depicts a much colder airmass moving in from Canada with temperatures at 5,000 feet falling below 32 degrees later Monday through Wednesday. These mid level temperatures would support ground highs in the 40s and 50s degrees with nighttime lows possibly falling into the 30s degrees depending on radiational cooling, where clear skies and calm winds allow heat to escape rapidly into space.