Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA**
**718 AM EDT Saturday, August 1, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

A slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms has been added to the forecast, although most locations are still expected to remain dry.

**Key Messages**

* Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms.
* A cold front brings the return of heavy precipitation and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday.
* Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms**

A warmer air mass remains in place thanks to a mid level ridge, an area of higher pressure several miles above the ground that helps promote warmer and generally quieter weather. This will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s degrees today and again on Sunday.

The ridge will move across southern New England this morning before gradually weakening over the next one to one and a half days. As that happens, forecasters have introduced a slight chance of afternoon showers or a thunderstorm, mainly across inland areas. Even so, most locations are expected to remain dry.

The atmosphere will contain enough instability, measured by CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, to support a few isolated thunderstorms. Any storm that develops could produce a brief heavy downpour because atmospheric moisture remains elevated, with precipitable water values over 1 inch. Otherwise, expect a mix of sunshine and afternoon fair weather clouds, with higher clouds gradually increasing as the next weather system approaches.

**Key Message 2, A cold front brings the return of heavy precipitation and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday**

The upper level ridge will continue weakening Sunday as a strong upper level storm system moves into the Ohio Valley, helping a strengthening area of low pressure develop at the surface. This system will slowly move northeast toward New England.

Ahead of it, a deep plume of tropical moisture will spread into southern New England. Atmospheric moisture levels, measured by precipitable water, are expected to exceed 2 inches, which is more than two standard deviations above normal for this time of year.

Precipitation is expected to develop across western areas late Sunday evening, spreading eastward Sunday night as warmer, more humid air moves into the region. The steadiest and heaviest precipitation is expected Monday as the cold front moves through.

Several ingredients will support periods of moderate to heavy precipitation, including a strong low level jet, a corridor of fast moving winds about a mile above the ground, with speeds of 35 to 45 mph. The region will also be positioned beneath the right rear quadrant of a powerful jet stream overhead, an area that often enhances rising air and increases precipitation.

It is still too early to determine exactly where the heaviest precipitation will fall or how much will accumulate. Current ensemble guidance, which combines many forecast model solutions, is not strongly indicating widespread amounts over 2 inches through Tuesday morning, although some individual model runs continue to suggest that possibility. Forecast confidence on rainfall totals will improve as higher resolution models come into range.

The strong low level jet may also produce gusty winds Monday, especially across Cape Cod, the Islands, and the coastal waters.

**Key Message 3, Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week**

Forecast confidence decreases after Monday. It remains uncertain how much of a break, if any, will occur between the departing disturbance Monday night into early Tuesday and the next system expected later in the week.

At this point, there are no signs of a strong area of high pressure settling over the region, so periodic chances for precipitation are expected to continue through much of next week.