Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
156 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

What Has Changed

The River Flood Warning for the Taunton River at Bridgewater was extended into Wednesday based on latest river forecasts from the Northeast River Forecast Center. Otherwise, no significant changes were made.

Key Messages

* Drier and warmer weather through Friday.
* Passing frontal boundary brings light rain showers Friday night into early Saturday, then drying out Saturday with onshore breezes for the Cape and Islands. Cloud cover and possible showers return Sunday, but it is uncertain how far north rain would extend.
* Dry weather, but blustery and a much cooler, Fall-like airmass returns for early to mid next week.

Discussion

Key Message 1...Drier and warmer weather through Friday.

Computer models show no major changes over the next few days. Weak high pressure, or a region of lighter winds and clear skies, will move across Southern New England on Wednesday. It will then strengthen off the East Coast on Thursday and Friday.

As this weather pattern sets up, winds will shift from the northwest behind the departing coastal storm, turning light westerly on Wednesday and southwesterly on Thursday and Friday. This wind direction will pull warmer air into the low and mid levels of the atmosphere. High up, atmospheric ridging, an elongated area of high pressure, will build along the East Coast.

The net result will be dry conditions through Friday. However, we will not see complete sunshine right away. Some leftover moisture near the surface will remain on Wednesday due to the lingering effects of the nor easter, leading to patches of stratocumulus clouds, particularly over eastern sections. Still, sunshine will be more plentiful than today.

On Thursday, high and mid level clouds will stream in from storminess over the central United States. Friday looks to be the sunniest day of the stretch.

Temperatures aloft at the 925 millibar level, roughly 2,500 feet above the ground, are currently around 52 to 55 degrees Fahrenheit. These values will rise to 54 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday, 61 to 64 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday, and 68 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday.

Under full sunshine and deep atmospheric mixing, surface highs typically end up about 18 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than those upper-level readings. While conditions will fall slightly short of full mixing, daytime highs will still reach the lower 70s degrees on Wednesday, mid to upper 70s degrees on Thursday, and the lower 80s degrees on Friday.

Overnight low temperatures will stay above seasonal averages. Most areas will remain in the 60s degrees Thursday night, compared to typical late September and early October lows near 50 degrees Fahrenheit.

Key Message 2...Passing frontal boundary brings light rain showers Friday night into early Saturday, then drying out Saturday with onshore breezes for the Cape and Islands. Cloud cover and possible showers return Sunday, but it is uncertain how far north rain would extend.

A fast-moving cold front will arrive from the Great Lakes and northern Appalachians late Friday night into early Saturday morning, bringing an end to the warm stretch.

Although the front carries moisture, with precipitable water values, or total moisture in an atmospheric column, near 1.4 inches based on Short-Range Ensemble Forecast model averages, the stronger atmospheric lift will pass to our north while weakening over time. Expect clouds and scattered light showers, with total precipitation estimates remaining around a quarter inch or less.

High pressure will build in from the northwest behind the front on Saturday, while the front itself stalls south of Long Island. Expect mostly sunny skies inland, with a blend of sun and clouds toward southeastern Massachusetts, eastern Rhode Island, Cape Cod, and the Islands.

Northeast winds near the coast will keep coastal communities cooler than inland spots. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 60s to near 70 degrees Fahrenheit inland, but will stay in the lower 60s degrees across Cape Cod.

Inland locations will see nighttime lows drop into the mid 40s degrees under ideal radiational cooling conditions, where heat escapes rapidly back into space under clear, calm skies. Coastal areas will stay warmer, with lows in the lower to mid 50s degrees, as persistent northeast winds keep the planetary boundary layer, the lowest layer of the atmosphere, mixed and less prone to decoupling.

Sunday into Sunday night represents the most uncertain portion of the forecast. The stalled frontal boundary to our south will begin pulling rich atmospheric moisture northward from the southeastern states, aided by weak atmospheric vorticity, or spin in the upper atmosphere, riding along the boundary.

This shield of rain will advance toward the dry air mass currently resting over the Northeast. Computer guidance from 1200 GMT, Greenwich Mean Time or 800 AM EDT model run data, conveys uncertainty regarding how far north this moisture shield can push, which depends on whether the strong high-pressure ridge to our north holds firm or weakens.

The highest chance for rain showers on Sunday is across the southern third of Southern New England, with lower chances further north. Slight to low chances of precipitation remain in the overall blended forecast across the entire coverage area for now until models show better agreement.

Key Message 3...Dry weather, but blustery and a much cooler, Fall-like airmass returns for early to mid next week.

The frontal boundary to our south will move offshore early Monday. In its wake, a strong upper-level atmospheric trough and an associated 1030 millibar Canadian high-pressure system will move into New England.

This system will bring dry but increasingly breezy weather along with the coldest air mass of the autumn season so far. By 800 AM EDT Tuesday, temperatures at the 925 millibar layer will drop to a chilly 28 degrees Fahrenheit.

Typical high temperatures for early October are in the mid 60s degrees, but temperatures early next week could run 5 to 10 degrees colder than average, accompanied by brisk breezes.