Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes to the forecast.

**Key Messages**

* A few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. The best chances are Thursday evening, followed by Saturday.

* A fall-like feel arrives Sunday, followed by more seasonable weather for Labor Day. A gradual warm-up is expected throughout the week, with continued dry weather through at least Wednesday or Thursday.

* An elevated risk for dangerous rip currents continues through the holiday weekend, especially Sunday into Labor Day.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Scattered showers and thunderstorms**

The frontal wave has brought a good amount of dry air into the middle levels of the atmosphere, allowing plenty of breaks of sun, especially across western southern New England. Mesoanalysis, which is an analysis of current atmospheric conditions, indicates about 1500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE. CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, measures how much energy is available to fuel thunderstorms.

High-resolution forecast guidance has reduced the expected coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Lingering clouds and morning rain showers have likely made the atmosphere less favorable for additional thunderstorms. Even the latest HRRR, or High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, is having difficulty matching current conditions, showing widespread thunderstorms while radar remains nearly clear.

As the front moves south, it could still produce a few isolated thunderstorms. Any storms are expected to remain below severe levels, with frequent lightning being the main threat. The greatest chance for storms will be along and south of the frontal boundary, mainly south of the Massachusetts Turnpike.

Looking toward Friday and Saturday, drier northwest winds will develop, with PWAT, or precipitable water, values falling to around 1 inch or less. This should produce a mostly dry stretch with a mix of clouds and sunshine. However, a mid-level trough, an elongated area of lower pressure higher in the atmosphere, along with low pressure just offshore, will still produce occasional daytime shower chances. This should not be a washout, but low rain chances remain in the forecast, mainly Saturday afternoon.

Friday will be the warmest day of the forecast period as a slightly warmer air mass moves in. Temperatures about 5,000 feet above the ground, measured at the 850 millibar level, briefly reach about 59 degrees Friday before falling to about 46 degrees Saturday. This supports high temperatures in the low to mid 80s Friday, followed by low to mid 70s Saturday.

**Key Message 2, Cooler Sunday followed by a gradual warm-up**

Saturday night through the middle of next week will feature generally quiet weather, with little chance for significant rainfall.

The 500 millibar forecast map shows an omega ridge, a large area of high pressure aloft with a shape resembling the Greek letter omega, centered across the middle of the country. A closed mid-level low, an area of lower pressure separated from the main upper-level flow, will be centered over Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon.

The omega ridge gradually flattens, with more west-to-east, or semi-zonal, winds developing along the coast by Tuesday. A smaller upper-level trough is expected to develop across the northeastern states later in the week, likely bringing the next opportunity for more active weather across southern New England.

At the surface, high pressure builds in from the northwest Sunday, originating in northern Canada. High pressure remains the dominant weather feature through most of the forecast period, supporting a stretch of generally dry weather.

Temperatures higher in the atmosphere will be considerably cooler Sunday because of the mid-level low east of New England. Temperatures about 2,500 feet above the ground, measured at the 925 millibar level, will be only around 46 to 50 degrees. With daytime mixing of the atmosphere, this supports highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday will therefore feel very much like autumn, with a mix of sun and clouds, northerly winds, and dew points in the low 50s. Dew point is a measure of the amount of moisture in the air, and lower values generally mean a more comfortable and less humid feel. While winds will not be especially strong, the combination of cooler temperatures and lower dew points will make Sunday feel crisp.

Sunday night could feature good radiational cooling as high pressure settles over the region. Radiational cooling occurs when the ground loses heat efficiently under generally clear and calm conditions. How much temperatures fall will depend on how quickly the winds diminish.

If winds become light enough, NBM, or National Blend of Models, guidance may be too warm in typically colder locations that cool efficiently overnight. For example, the NBM has KOWD (Norwood) around 54 degrees, while cooler CONSMOS guidance (Blend of models) suggests temperatures could fall into the mid to upper 40s. Otherwise, overnight lows are generally expected to be in the 50s.

Good news if you are not ready for pumpkin spice weather yet, temperatures will gradually turn warmer throughout the week as warmer air moves in aloft. Temperatures around 2,500 feet above the ground are expected to rise to about 57 to 64 degrees, supporting near-seasonable highs in the upper 70s for Labor Day, followed by upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday into the middle of next week.

Humidity should remain tolerable, with dew points generally in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Labor Day itself looks quiet and dry, although there will be a high risk for rip currents along the ocean beaches.

**Key Message 3, Dangerous rip currents**

Persistent northeast winds, long-period ocean swells, and offshore seas of 4 to 7 feet will continue to support an elevated risk for dangerous rip currents through the holiday weekend. The greatest concern will be Sunday into Labor Day, especially along east-facing ocean beaches.

With otherwise quiet weather expected, those heading to the beach should remember that ocean conditions can still be hazardous even when the weather is pleasant. Check with local beach staff or lifeguards about current ocean conditions before entering the water.