Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

604 AM EST Thursday November 12, 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Forecasters have noted the potential for minor coastal flooding around Nantucket Friday afternoon. Previously issued Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings, indicating a higher confidence that strong winds will develop over the coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

\- A storm system will bring an extended period of rain to much of southern New England Thursday through Saturday, with periods of snow possible in the higher elevations. Significant snow accumulation is not expected.

\- High pressure will bring cooler and drier conditions back to southern New England for much of the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Extended Period of Rain, With Some Higher Elevation Snow

Light precipitation is already showing up on radar across central southern New England early this morning. This is the beginning of a larger area of rain expected to spread across the region later today.

A strengthening low pressure system, along with an upper-level disturbance, will move across the Mid-Atlantic states today before tracking offshore south of New England tonight. The storm will eventually move northward into the Gulf of Maine Friday night and into the weekend, carrying its moisture away from the region. Overall, the next 36 to 42 hours will be unsettled and wet before conditions begin improving.

Widespread rain will develop today as warmer, moisture-filled air moves into the region ahead of the storm. Easterly winds blowing off the ocean will help concentrate rainfall across interior and northwestern southern New England. This upslope flow occurs when moist air is forced upward by higher terrain, helping to enhance precipitation. A relatively strong low-level jet, which is a concentrated area of faster-moving winds several thousand feet above the ground, will also contribute to the developing weather system.

Rain will spread across the remainder of southern New England this evening as the storm moves south of Long Island. As the low pressure system continues eastward, winds will shift from northerly to northwesterly, drawing colder air into the region.

This colder air, combined with cooling caused by heavier precipitation, could change some of the rain to wet snow across the higher elevations of the Berkshires and, to a lesser extent, the Worcester Hills. This type of cooling is known as diabatic cooling, which simply means that falling precipitation can help lower the temperature of the surrounding air.

Most other locations should experience a cold rain. There is a small possibility of some light snow reaching farther south into Connecticut and the hills of Rhode Island late Friday, but forecasters consider this a low-probability scenario.

Precipitation should gradually move south and out of the region by late Friday. Fortunately, this means the precipitation will be ending as colder overnight temperatures arrive.

Overall, this should be a relatively minor weather event for most of southern New England. In the higher elevations, snow accumulations will likely range from a coating in the Worcester Hills to a few inches in the Berkshires. Most accumulation will be confined to grassy surfaces rather than roadways.

Temperatures on Friday will remain quite chilly, especially across the higher elevations, where readings may struggle to get out of the upper 30s. Areas farther south toward the coast should reach the mid to upper 40s.


Coastal Flooding Potential

There is also some concern for minor coastal flooding, particularly around Nantucket. Although astronomical tides are not especially high, forecast guidance indicates the possibility of an additional 1 to 1.5 feet of storm surge.

Storm surge is the temporary rise in water level caused by strong winds and low atmospheric pressure pushing ocean water toward the coastline. While this should not be a significant concern for most coastal communities, the additional water could bring Nantucket Harbor close to minor flood levels during Friday afternoon high tide.

If this potential continues to show up in forecast guidance, the National Weather Service may issue coastal flood advisories or warnings.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler and Drier Weather Returns for the Weekend and Next Week

The latest forecast guidance suggests the storm system will move offshore into Atlantic Canada earlier than previously expected, likely sometime Saturday rather than Sunday.

High pressure will begin building across the Great Lakes this weekend, gradually bringing improving weather back to southern New England. The difference in air pressure between the departing storm and the approaching high will keep winds somewhat blustery through Sunday.

As high pressure strengthens, a longer stretch of dry weather is expected to develop, continuing through the beginning of next week.

Temperatures will gradually recover during the first half of next week. Highs should reach the upper 40s on Saturday before climbing into the middle 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Clearer skies and lighter winds under high pressure will also allow temperatures to drop more efficiently overnight. This process is known as radiational cooling, which occurs when the ground loses heat after sunset, allowing temperatures near the surface to fall. As a result, overnight lows could drop into the 20s across parts of the region through the middle of next week.