Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA,
248 PM EDT
Sat Aug 8 2026**

**What has Changed**

Forecast remains on track.

**Key Messages**

Diurnal, meaning daytime driven, shower and thunderstorm chances remain a threat today. Heat and humidity slowly trend downward during Sunday. Dry weather is expected Sunday.

Next week is trending less hot and less humid each day, and possibly slightly cooler than normal by Friday and into next weekend.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Showers and thunderstorms today**

A typical summertime thunderstorm environment has developed across southern New England this afternoon. Limited bulk shear, which describes how much the wind changes with height, and modest CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, which measures the amount of energy available for thunderstorms, are present.

Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across portions of northern Massachusetts, with more storms across eastern New York. The greatest risk for stronger thunderstorms will be across western Massachusetts and Connecticut. This threat should diminish after sunset, although some thunderstorms could continue into the later evening. The greatest concern would be straight-line wind damage from strong thunderstorm outflows.

**Sunday**

Drier weather is expected Sunday. Forecast guidance favors lower dew points because of expected west winds across the interior. Dew points, which indicate the amount of moisture in the air, should still take until the afternoon to fall into the lower 60s to upper 50s across the interior. Toward Cape Cod and the islands, dew points may remain near 70 until Sunday night.

**Key Message 2, Warm and humid weather through Wednesday**

A persistent summer weather pattern is expected through Wednesday, with enhanced quasi-zonal flow, meaning generally west-to-east winds in the middle levels of the atmosphere, interacting with summerlike temperatures and humidity.

Warm temperatures and elevated, although not especially oppressive, humidity levels are expected to continue through Wednesday. Dew points should remain in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures about 5,000 to 8,000 feet above the surface are expected to change very little, cooling only slightly from Sunday through Wednesday. This supports afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values in the lower to middle 90s.

While this combination is not expected to reach headline-level heat, the extended period of heat index values in the 90s means it will still be important to stay hydrated and take breaks in cooler locations.

Sunday should generally be dry because west winds near the surface and rising pressure should make it difficult for enough upward motion to develop thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances return early to mid next week. Stronger winds higher in the atmosphere could allow a few storms to become strong or severe.

The main challenge is determining exactly when and where storms will develop. Small disturbances moving through the faster middle-level flow can focus thunderstorms, especially with the warm and humid conditions in place. It is difficult at this forecast range to identify specific days that will have the greatest storm chances. It will not rain or thunder continuously, but there will be scattered storms to watch for from time to time.

Forecast values remain fairly close to the National Blend of Models, or NBM, guidance because there are not many areas where significant improvements are needed.

**Key Message 3, Cooler and less humid weather next week**

A large area of low pressure near Hudson Bay is expected to slowly move southeast through Ontario and Quebec next week. This system will send several smaller disturbances, known as short waves, into southern New England.

Each disturbance should gradually weaken the western edge of the western Atlantic subtropical ridge, a large area of higher pressure that has been helping maintain the warm and humid weather. This will result in a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through Thursday.

This does not look like a washout, with many hours of dry weather expected each day. Overall, the pattern should be fairly typical for mid August in southern New England.

Each disturbance should also bring a gradual decrease in temperatures and humidity. The week will begin with warmer than normal temperatures and dew points in the 60s, then finish with temperatures near or slightly cooler than normal by Friday, along with dew points in the 50s.