Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
Issued 1253 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

SYNOPSIS
Northwest winds continue across the area with snow and rain showers around the mountains. Our next system will move across Ontario and Quebec late Saturday, bringing more widespread precipitation. North of the storm track, accumulating snow is likely. Along the track, a wintry mix including light freezing rain is expected. South of the track, precipitation stays mostly rain. Once precipitation moves out, it will become gusty as westerly winds increase. Another round of mountain snow showers is likely into at least Monday. High pressure moves in for the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM (Through Saturday)
Recent radar shows a few isolated showers across the Midcoast with drier weather elsewhere. Through the rest of the day, an upslope snow shower is still possible in the mountains, but precipitation across New Hampshire and Maine should gradually wind down as high pressure builds in tonight.
Light winds and clear skies will support a colder night. Lows drop into the mid 20s for most areas. High pressure remains overhead Saturday with clouds increasing in the afternoon as low pressure approaches. High temperatures Saturday should feel similar to today, with readings in the low 40s across the region.

SHORT TERM (Saturday Night Through Sunday)
Saturday night, a low pressure system moves in from the Great Lakes. This system interacts with the cold air over New England, producing winter weather. The storm track has some overrunning characteristics, meaning warmer air lifts over colder surface air, resulting in periods of sleet and freezing rain across New Hampshire. This setup is more inverted than typical, with the overrunning oriented west to east rather than south to north.
Low level frontogenesis, which is the strengthening of temperature contrasts that often helps enhance precipitation, is expected to weaken as it approaches New Hampshire. This means snow and rain rates will stay mostly light. Forecast guidance varies on the exact placement of mixed precipitation and icing amounts. Some guidance favors more icing in northern New Hampshire, while others keep most icing south of the White Mountains. Icing across central New Hampshire appears more likely, with sleet more favored in and near the White Mountains.
BUFKIT soundings, which are vertical profile tools used to understand temperature layers in the atmosphere, show a shallow warm layer in the mountains and deeper warm layers over central New Hampshire. This supports higher freezing rain totals across the southern half of the White Mountains.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Grafton, northern Carroll, and southern Coos counties. Expansion into other areas may be needed as guidance becomes clearer.
Thermal profiles support a mix of snow and sleet north and east of the Whites. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all possible in the White Mountain region at times. North of the Whites and across northwest Maine, surface cold air should be strong enough to keep precipitation mostly snow.
In Maine, precipitation should generally fall as rain or snow with only a small chance for brief sleet near the northern edge of the rain and snow boundary. The northern edge of this rain and snow line appears to set up just south of the US 2 corridor. Snow may briefly reach Lewiston, but most areas south and east of the I 95 corridor should see mainly rain.
Most accumulating snow will be heavy and wet. Liquid totals of about 0.25 to 0.5 inch are expected, with 1 to 3 inches of snow across the Rangeley Lakes region. The low moves east and precipitation tapers off through the afternoon Sunday. Snow may continue north of the mountains as upslope northwest flow develops behind the system.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night Through Friday)
Temperatures remain near to below normal through the extended period. Precipitation chances stay low outside the mountains until late in the week. No significant weather impacts are expected early in the week, though more widespread wintry weather is possible late next week.
By Sunday night, the region will be back in post frontal northwest flow. Forecast soundings show steep low level lapse rates with temperatures near the warmer end of the dendritic growth zone, which is the temperature range where snowflakes grow efficiently. Combined with ample low level moisture, this supports frequent mountain snow showers through midweek. Moisture depth is forecast to stay somewhat below the highest peaks, keeping most activity close to the mountains with flurries unlikely near the coast.

The week starts chilly and gradually moderates. The next widespread precipitation chance arrives late in the week. Ensemble forecasts show high pressure well positioned to hold cold air over the interior, though timing and storm track remain uncertain. Another round of wintry weather is possible, especially across the northern half of the forecast area. While the National Blend of Models currently shows low snow probabilities, it often struggles with cold air damming scenarios. Therefore, snow has been included in the forecast rather than freezing rain or rain only.