Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
421 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

**What Has Changed**

Forecast remains on track.

**Key Messages**

* Showers move out of Southern New England by 7 to 8 AM. Drier and slightly cooler afterward.

* High astronomical tides and up to one foot of storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening high tides tonight and Tuesday night.

* Near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions followed by more unsettled weather at the end of the work week.

**Synopsis**

Showers depart early this morning, followed by clearing skies, lower humidity, and seasonable temperatures. Coastal flooding concerns continue through Tuesday night due to high astronomical tides and lingering storm surge. Dry weather dominates much of the middle of the week before a stronger weather system increases the risk for showers and thunderstorms late this week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Showers move out of Southern New England by 7 to 8 AM. Drier and slightly cooler afterward.**

Any lingering showers this morning should move out of Southern New England by 7 to 8 AM. Behind the cold front, skies will gradually clear and temperatures will settle back to more seasonable levels, ranging from the upper 70s across inland areas to the lower and middle 80s across Rhode Island and the eastern coastal plain.

Humidity levels will also drop noticeably, with dewpoints falling into the 50s across most of the region. High pressure will begin building into the area as a ridge of high pressure develops at the surface.

Tonight will be cool and comfortable. Low temperatures may fall into the lower 50s across inland locations, with middle to upper 50s closer to the coast. Light to calm winds and clear skies could allow for efficient nighttime cooling, a process meteorologists refer to as radiational cooling.

**Key Message 2, High astronomical tides and up to one foot of storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening high tides tonight and Tuesday night.**

Astronomical tides will peak near 12.0 feet in Boston Harbor this evening and remain elevated through Tuesday night.

Forecast guidance, including the P-ETSS and Stevens Institute storm surge models, continues to indicate between one-half foot and one foot of storm surge through Tuesday evening's high tide cycle.

This remains a lower-end coastal flooding scenario. The most likely impacts include splashover and minor flooding on roads and shoreline areas that are historically vulnerable to coastal flooding. Examples include Easy Street in Nantucket and Morrissey Boulevard in Boston.

Because many visitors may be unfamiliar with local coastal flooding risks, Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for much of the southern and eastern coastline. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Nantucket through Tuesday night.

**Key Message 3, Expecting a more active pattern to return during the second half of the week.**

Temperatures will begin climbing again by Wednesday, reaching the lower to middle 80s while humidity remains fairly comfortable.

Forecast models continue to disagree on the timing of the next chance for precipitation. The GFS model and its ensemble members suggest scattered light showers could return during the day Wednesday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian models, along with their ensemble forecasts, delay precipitation until Thursday.

Regardless of the exact timing, confidence is growing that a more active weather pattern will develop by Thursday or Thursday night as a stronger upper-level disturbance approaches and pushes a cold front through Southern New England. This system could bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The front is expected to move offshore sometime Friday, allowing skies to clear and drier weather to return heading into the weekend. Temperatures should rise slightly above normal, reaching the middle to upper 80s. Humidity levels are expected to remain comfortable, with dewpoints generally ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s.