Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
National Weather Service Gray ME
236 AM EDT Wednesday, June 17, 2026

**What Has Changed**

The risk for severe storms on Thursday has increased.

**Key Messages**

1. Astronomical tides are trending down but remain high for at least the next 24 hours.

2. An unseasonably strong storm is forecast to cross the region Thursday and bring a chance of both severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

3. The weather pattern remains unsettled Friday into early next week with daily chances for afternoon showers and a few storms.

**Synopsis**

An unusually strong storm system for mid-June will approach and move through the region Thursday, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and the potential for severe thunderstorms. Unsettled weather continues through early next week as several upper-level disturbances move through the Northeast.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

Forecast trends continue to point toward a stronger storm on Thursday. Current guidance shows the storm center tracking through southern Quebec with lower atmospheric pressure than previous forecasts, an indication of a strengthening system.

As the storm approaches, strong southeast winds near the surface will help develop a widespread area of rain along a warm front. Rainfall forecasts have increased, particularly in and around the White Mountains. This area has experienced recent flash flooding, meaning it will take less additional rainfall to trigger new flooding concerns.

Forecast guidance continues to suggest precipitation totals may increase as higher-resolution models become available. Some model projections are already showing localized precipitation amounts of 3 to 4 inches, which is reasonable considering the strong large-scale weather dynamics, abundant moisture, and atmospheric instability expected Thursday.

Once the rain shifts northeast, parts of the region may enter the warm sector of the storm, the warmer and more unstable air ahead of the cold front. As this occurs, stronger winds from higher levels of the atmosphere may mix down to the surface, producing southwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Current forecasts may be underestimating this potential, so wind speeds and gusts have been increased for Thursday.

Attention then turns to the severe weather threat Thursday afternoon. Forecasting rapid atmospheric destabilization following morning clouds and rain can be challenging in northern New England, but the atmospheric wind pattern is favorable enough that only modest instability may be needed for severe thunderstorms to develop.

Several storm-scale forecast models are already indicating a broken line of thunderstorms developing over Vermont and moving into New Hampshire before gradually weakening. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of New Hampshire and western Maine to a Slight Risk for severe weather.

Additional guidance, including Colorado State University machine learning forecasts, indicates potential risks for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Forecasts show very strong wind shear, meaning winds change significantly with height. This can help thunderstorms rotate and organize. Some storms may develop localized rotating areas or bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

While thunderstorms are not expected to become exceptionally tall, there is more than enough wind energy in the lower atmosphere to support severe weather. The severe threat should decrease quickly after sunset as daytime heating is lost, although gusty non-thunderstorm winds may continue through the night.

**Key Message 2 Description**

A broad area of unsettled weather is expected from Friday into early next week. Several upper-level low pressure systems and smaller disturbances rotating around them will keep daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Despite the unsettled pattern, temperatures and humidity levels should remain close to seasonal averages, allowing for many comfortable periods outdoors between rounds of precipitation.

A slow-moving low pressure system will gradually move north of the area Friday through the weekend. Persistent northwest winds are likely to keep skies mostly cloudy north of the mountains, where clouds tend to accumulate against higher terrain.

South of the mountains, skies should be somewhat clearer. However, increased sunshine will help generate afternoon fair-weather clouds and scattered thunderstorms as cooler air moves overhead. Temperatures several miles above the surface are forecast to cool to around the freezing mark, making it possible for some stronger thunderstorms to produce small hail.

While the extreme moisture associated with Thursday's storm will depart, atmospheric moisture levels will remain sufficient for brief downpours. Current projections suggest precipitation-producing storms will still be capable of locally heavy rain, although the overall flooding threat appears lower than Thursday.

Looking into early next week, global forecast models generally agree that another upper-level low pressure system will develop across the region. While timing differences remain, confidence is increasing that the overall pattern will remain unsettled, with continued opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through at least the first part of next week.