NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING:
Northwest winds are already on the breezy side this morning behind the secondary cold front that has just recently pushed offshore. There remains enough moisture for some upslope precip to continue across the foothills and higher terrain, but these should gradually wind down over the next few hours as the northwest flow brings drier air across New England. Skies are also expected to become mostly sunny by later this morning as the atmosphere continues to dry out.

The main story then becomes the expected critical fire weather conditions. Very dry air will mix down from aloft, causing relative humidity (RH) to crash into the teens and low twenties. We`ll also keep the gusty NW winds of 25 to 30 mph through late afternoon or early evening before the pressure gradient starts to relax.

Cold advection should keep highs a few degrees less than those of Tuesday...mainly ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, except a bit cooler across the north.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY:
Clouds will quickly increase and lower from southwest to northeast overnight tonight ahead of a wave of low pressure that will pass through the region on Thursday. Most of the area will remain dry through tonight, but NH could see some showers toward daybreak. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to low 40s across the north and mid to upper 40s toward the south, which is on the warmer side of guidance due to the increasing cloud cover.

Showers will continue to overspread NH and ME from west to east through the morning and afternoon as forcing increases from the wave aloft and a warm front lift north through the area. Have stuck pretty close to hi-res guidance by having the highest rain chances across northern areas and gradually tapering off to toward southern NH and SW ME. With the warm front crossing through, temperatures will recover some as flow turns southerly, but still limited to the 50s for most.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
After a quick hitting system exits east Thursday night, a significant warming and moistening trend takes us through the weekend culminating in a potent cold frontal passage. At least some potential for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall exists this weekend... but much of this will rely on how FROPA (Frontal Passage) timing ends up, along with the normal uncertainty being at the day 4-5 range of the forecast. High pressure builds in thereafter with trending back down to normal and clearing conditions to start the next work week.

Upsloping showers come to an end early Friday with low pressure pulling east into the Maritimes. A weak ridge of high pressure quickly follows on its heels with mixing, clearing, and much warmer temperatures for the daytime. Southerly flow will eventually work back in behind the shortwave ridge, which will make high temperatures vary a bit. Further west in interior New Hampshire and especially the Connecticut River Valley, readings in the upper 70s to low 80s will be attainable whereas readings along the coast will struggle to warm into the 50s to low 60s with onshore flow. Elsewhere in interior Maine and into the mountains, comfortable 60s or 70s are likely.

Saturday into Sunday, a healthy warm sector develops over the Northeast as a broad area of low pressure occludes over eastern Canada and deep ridging along the East Coast allows a strong southwest return flow. Onshore flow should start up around Friday night and may lead to low clouds and fog, but strengthening westerly flow should lift this going into Saturday. This pattern is sure to develop an unstable airmass locally, especially if we can keep mixing and offshore flow. Of note will be diurnally driven shower and storm development over the mountains... although a weakening boundary sent in from Canadian low pressure may also be in play and provide somewhat of a focus for convection. This is where the greatest uncertainty comes into play... the ENS and its deterministic ECMWF favors a lack of fronts/forcing mechanism to focus precipitation, whereas the GEFS and its deterministic GFS favor bringing the fronts. Have leaned on the former solution, focusing efforts on diurnal activity with gradually increasing PoPs into Sunday.

The weekend forecast therefore is fairly low-confidence with the timing and details, however a very warm and humid airmass can be expected with at least diurnally driven showers and storms. There`s a chance that an EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) could make its way over which, when coupled with the general destabilization could lead to a severe threat. Precipitable water values will be on the rise as well, so there may be a requisite conditional threat for locally heavy rainfall as well. The temperature forecast this weekend calls for highs in the 80s to low 90s, coinciding with dew points in the 60s. Will have to keep an eye on low-level flow in the context of any fronts that drop down through the area to assess the contribution of onshore flow, but the consensus for now is that only the immediate coast and perhaps up into the Capitol region by Sunday will see relief from the heat this weekend.

Models remain in fair agreement bringing a cold front across the area attached to a larger upper level trough late in the weekend or very early in the next work week. The front brings greater chances for showers/storms outside of the mountains, but the good news is that high pressure builds to start next week. By Monday, northwesterly flow should mix well with a much cooler airmass coming in aloft, which will limit highs to the 60s and low 70s. Winds weaken with high pressure overhead, which will allow cool overnights and daily seabreezes into midweek.