Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Gray ME**

**632 AM EDT, Monday, August 3, 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes since the previous forecast cycle. Forecasters continue to monitor the potential for localized flash flooding today due to very heavy downpours.

**Key Messages**

1. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through today as a cold front slowly crosses the region.

2. Humid conditions will continue through the remainder of the week with chances for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

An upper level trough, referred to by meteorologists as an H5 trough, will move from west to east across the region today while taking on a negatively tilted orientation, meaning it becomes aligned in a way that often supports stronger storm development. At the surface, a low pressure system tracking through Quebec will pull a warm front northward this morning, placing much of the region into a warm, humid air mass with winds from the south and southwest.

The ingredients needed for rising air and thunderstorm development will increase through the day. Atmospheric moisture will climb to around 2.00 inches of precipitable water, which measures the total amount of moisture available in the atmosphere and is well above normal for this time of year.

Warm cloud depths will extend to around 13,000 feet, allowing showers and thunderstorms to produce very heavy rainfall.

Some storms may repeatedly move over the same locations, a process known as training, or new storms may develop behind existing ones, called backbuilding. These patterns increase the risk of localized flooding because heavy rain falls over the same area for an extended period.

Despite the heavy rainfall potential, much of the precipitation will be beneficial because most of the region remains dry, except for portions of far southern New Hampshire. Rivers have enough capacity to handle the expected rainfall, so river flooding is not anticipated.
However, localized flooding in poor drainage areas is possible, and an isolated flash flood cannot be ruled out. Most locations receiving the heaviest storms could see up to around 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible.

Another concern this afternoon will be the potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms as the cold front moves through. The biggest uncertainty is whether morning clouds and rainfall clear out soon enough to allow the atmosphere to become unstable. Forecast guidance suggests this is possible, especially across New Hampshire, where the strongest storms could produce locally damaging wind gusts.

It will remain muggy today with afternoon high temperatures in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Overnight lows will fall mainly into the 50s, with patchy fog developing in some locations.





**Key Message 2 Description**

Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry as high pressure builds into the region behind the departing storm system. Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s south of the mountains and the middle to upper 70s farther north as skies become mostly sunny. Mostly clear skies Tuesday night and lighter winds will allow temperatures to cool into the middle to upper 50s.

Wednesday will be similar, with slightly warmer temperatures as the center of high pressure moves overhead. By Wednesday night, the high shifts east while an upper level trough develops over the Great Lakes. This pattern will bring southwesterly winds back into the region, allowing humidity to increase once again. While the air near the ground should remain relatively dry, it will feel noticeably more humid.

The hottest weather is expected during the latter half of the week. Temperatures could approach 90 degrees during the afternoons in some areas, and higher humidity will make it feel even warmer. Nights will also become increasingly uncomfortable, with low temperatures remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Forecast models indicate that the jet stream may become more west to east, known as zonal flow, by Sunday. If this develops, it could begin to ease the heat and humidity, although it remains too early to know exactly how that pattern will evolve.

Rain chances will not completely disappear later this week, but they appear limited. A few weak disturbances moving through the larger weather pattern may trigger isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. At this time, many locations are expected to remain dry.