Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 231 PM EDT Monday September 14 2026**

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**

No significant changes to the forecast.

**KEY MESSAGES**

* Dry with below normal temperatures through Tuesday night.

* Above normal temperatures return Wednesday through the end of the week, with high temperatures mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees. A few showers are possible sometime late Thursday into early Friday, but dry weather should dominate.

* Possible return of unsettled weather toward the second half of the upcoming weekend.

**DISCUSSION**

**KEY MESSAGE 1, Dry with below normal temperatures through Tuesday night**

A large area of high pressure will arrive from the west tonight. High pressure generally brings sinking air, lighter winds, and more stable weather. Gusty winds should subside around sunset, becoming light and variable later this evening.

With clear skies and lighter winds, conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling, which means heat near the ground can escape efficiently after sunset. This should result in low temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Cooler conditions will continue into Tuesday night, with light easterly to southeasterly winds.

The center of the high pressure system should be over the North Atlantic Tuesday night, causing winds to gradually shift toward the south and southwest.

**KEY MESSAGE 2, Above normal temperatures return midweek and continue through the end of the week**

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern this week, keeping generally dry conditions across southern New England. A strong upper level ridge, an area of higher pressure and sinking air in the upper atmosphere, will build from the southeastern United States into parts of the Northeast during the middle of the week. It will then flatten somewhat across the northern tier Thursday into Friday.

A trough, an elongated area of lower pressure in the upper atmosphere, will remain well to our north across Canada. Between these two large weather features, surface high pressure will remain established over much of the northern and northeastern United States.

Warmer air several thousand feet above the surface will move in from the west, allowing temperatures to climb back above normal across southern New England. High temperatures should return to the 70s and could reach the lower 80s in some locations.

High pressure will loosen its grip on the region somewhat late Thursday into Friday as a shortwave, a smaller disturbance moving through the upper atmosphere, approaches. NAEFS guidance, an ensemble weather model system that runs many forecasts to assess possible outcomes, is showing a return of higher than normal moisture with the westerly flow. PWATs, or precipitable water values that estimate the total amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, could be about one to two standard deviations above normal for this time of year.

Ahead of any showers associated with the incoming shortwave and frontal system, Thursday could feel somewhat more humid. Current guidance favors showers moving through the region late Thursday into Friday morning, although the exact timing may change somewhat with future forecasts.

Drier conditions should follow as drier air moves into the region higher in the atmosphere. Temperatures may remain warmer than normal Friday afternoon before cooler air arrives for Saturday.

**KEY MESSAGE 3, Possible return of unsettled weather toward the second half of the upcoming weekend**

The ridge to our south appears likely to weaken somewhat going into the weekend, which could increase the chances for more unsettled weather.

The latest ensemble guidance suggests the second half of the weekend may be the most likely period for unsettled conditions, as a strong area of low pressure tracks toward the region from the Plains and Great Lakes.

Because this potential system is still several days away, there is considerable uncertainty, and the forecast details are likely to change with future updates.