Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gray ME
728 AM EDT Sunday, June 14, 2026

**What Has Changed**

The threat remains for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An area of heavier rainfall potential has shifted south toward the mountains for this evening and tonight, increasing the risk of flash flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for this evenings high tide from Portland through the New Hampshire Seacoast.

**Key Messages**

1. A cold front will cross the region today and bring a possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms as the heat breaks.

2. Expect high astronomical tides into early next week.

3. Seasonable temperatures return for much of the week. An unsettled second half of the week is likely with multiple rounds of precipitation in the forecast.

**Synopsis**

A cold front approaching from the west will cross the region today, bringing the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall. Cooler and less humid air follows for much of the week before a more active weather pattern develops later in the week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

There has been little overall change to the severe weather threat for this afternoon and early evening.

Parts of the region remain under a Marginal Risk and Slight Risk for severe weather. Multiple forecast tools continue to support these risk areas, including the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF), Colorado State University machine learning guidance, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) ensemble guidance.

The greatest concern is for thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening near a warm front expected to remain close to the Canadian border. Atmospheric instability should be sufficient for strong storms, while wind conditions through the atmosphere are particularly favorable for storm organization. Forecast wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction with height, exceeds 35 knots in the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere. This supports several types of severe storms, including isolated rotating thunderstorms known as supercells as well as organized lines of storms capable of producing damaging winds.

Forecast storm rotation profiles continue to indicate a low but notable tornado risk. However, damaging straight-line winds remain the primary threat.

Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. High-resolution forecast models suggest storms may develop during the early afternoon, followed by additional activity during the evening and overnight hours. This raises concerns about increasing precipitation totals, especially where storms repeatedly move over the same locations along the warm front.

Most forecast guidance currently indicates 2 to 3 inches of precipitation in the hardest-hit areas. However, some earlier HREF guidance suggested isolated totals of 4 to 5 inches across portions of western and central Maine. Given the weather setup, those higher amounts remain possible. Across northern areas, flash flood guidance indicates that as little as 2 inches of rainfall in three hours could trigger flooding. As a result, flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

Today will also be the last hot day for some time. Inland locations will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s, while onshore winds keep coastal temperatures mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Fair weather is expected near the coast through much of the day before thunderstorms arrive later tonight. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect due to an elevated risk for paddlers and small watercraft, especially in bays and sheltered coastal waters.

**Key Message 2 Description**

High astronomical tides continue through today and Monday.

The evening high tides remain the primary concern for minor coastal flooding, with the greatest risk centered on Portland and Hampton during both Sunday and Monday evening high tides.

This evenings tide coincides with strengthening southerly winds ahead of the approaching front. This will create rougher marine conditions, although wave heights of 2 to 4 feet are relatively modest compared to winter storms. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Portland through the New Hampshire Seacoast beginning after 9 PM EDT.

Future high tides will occur with lower wave heights, but water levels are still expected to reach action stage and may approach minor flood thresholds.

**Key Message 3 Description**

Forecast models remain in good agreement that seasonable temperatures will return for much of the upcoming week.

Most locations can expect daytime highs in the 70s and 80s, with overnight lows generally falling into the 50s and lower 60s. Humidity levels will gradually increase later in the week as the next weather systems approach.

An upper-level low pressure system moving east across Ontario and Quebec will help bring cooler temperatures and a more unsettled weather pattern.

The first of three disturbances is expected Wednesday evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger system is then forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, producing more widespread rain during the morning followed by thunderstorms later in the day and evening.

Additional wraparound showers may linger behind that system, keeping conditions unsettled into next weekend. High temperatures during this period are expected to remain mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Unsettled weather may continue through the weekend.