Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA, 414 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026**

**What Has Changed**

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

**Key Messages**

* Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend with seasonable temperatures.

* Unsettled weather returns with periodic chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms early to midweek next week, potentially lingering into Thursday.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1, Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend with seasonable temperatures**

High pressure at the surface is moving offshore today, allowing winds to shift from the east. Even with that change, weak high pressure remains in control, bringing another dry day with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s across inland areas. Along the immediate coastline, the onshore wind will keep temperatures cooler, generally in the mid to upper 70s.

By Sunday, a trough, an elongated area of lower pressure in the middle levels of the atmosphere, moves in from the west. Forecast guidance also shows a low pressure system remaining well offshore. Winds from the east may bring some additional moisture inland, especially across eastern Massachusetts.

Forecast models suggest this moisture will stay in a very shallow layer near the ground, while much drier air remains overhead. Because of that, most locations should stay dry. The greatest concern would be for a few patches of drizzle across the outer Cape and Islands. There is still some uncertainty about how far west this moisture reaches, so confidence is moderate. Otherwise, expect a mostly dry day with more clouds across eastern areas, a northeast breeze near the coast, highs in the low to mid 80s inland, and mid to upper 70s closer to the coast.

There will also be an increased risk of dangerous rip currents on Sunday because of the persistent easterly wind. The greatest concern is along the south and east-facing beaches, especially across Cape Cod, the Islands, and parts of the eastern Massachusetts coastline.

**Key Message 2, Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Wednesday, potentially lingering into Thursday**

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled next week as a trough remains over the region. Several smaller disturbances, known as shortwaves, are expected to move through the larger weather pattern, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms from late Monday through Wednesday, with some activity possibly continuing into Thursday.

Forecast models are still not in good agreement on the exact timing and track of these systems. One possibility is the development of a stronger-than-usual low pressure system for late July across the Northeast. If that occurs, it could increase the chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Atmospheric moisture is expected to increase significantly by Tuesday. Forecasts indicate precipitable water, the total amount of moisture available in the atmosphere for rainfall, could reach 120 to 170 percent of normal. If the low pressure system develops as some models suggest, it would provide additional lift in the atmosphere, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms capable of producing localized heavy rainfall. That could create a risk of isolated flash flooding.

Exactly where the heaviest rain develops will depend on the eventual track of the weather system. The greatest threat could end up over western portions of southern New England, or even remain south or west of the region. Forecasters expect confidence to improve over the next couple of days as forecast models come into better agreement.

Most guidance favors showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening hours, when daytime heating creates greater atmospheric instability.

Temperatures next week should generally remain near or slightly below normal for late July.