Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
250 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

**What Has Changed**

Increased wind gusts slightly for today.

**Key Messages**

1. An unsettled pattern continues over the weekend with daily chances for showers and storms, mostly in the mountains. Gusty northwest winds today up to 30 MPH.

2. Low pressure tracks near New England Monday, likely bringing rainfall through Monday night.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

Much of the latest forecast guidance continues to show a broad area of lower pressure in the upper atmosphere over New England this weekend, along with occasional weak disturbances moving through the flow. This will keep conditions partly to mostly cloudy at times, especially during the afternoons, with periodic chances for showers, particularly on Sunday.

Today, a deep northwest flow around a large area of low pressure will continue across the region. The best chances for showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, will be in the mountains. Air descending off the mountains toward lower elevations will help keep much of southern and coastal areas dry while also producing wind gusts around 30 MPH. Afternoon temperatures will reach the 60s across the mountains, while lower elevations warm well into the 70s.

On Sunday, another weak disturbance is expected to cross the region. Temperatures roughly 18,000 feet above the ground are forecast to fall to around 0 degrees Fahrenheit, which is unusually cold for late June. Combined with increasing moisture near the surface, this will create enough atmospheric instability for scattered thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon.

Meteorologists refer to this instability as SBCAPE, or Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy, with values exceeding 1000 joules per kilogram. In plain terms, this means the atmosphere may have enough energy to support stronger thunderstorm development. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms could produce strong wind gusts and small hail because of the colder air overhead and rapidly decreasing temperatures with height. High temperatures Sunday will climb well into the 70s, with some locations reaching around 80 degrees.

**Key Message 2 Description**

On Monday, low pressure is expected to move out of the Ohio Valley and into southern New England. Forecast confidence remains somewhat limited because computer models continue to disagree on the exact track and speed of the system. These differences will determine how much rainfall falls across the region and how quickly the rain moves out on Tuesday.

The system is expected to develop as an incoming upper-level trough from the Great Lakes interacts with a southern stream jet and a surge of moisture. Forecast confidence suggests these features will eventually merge east of the continental United States, but the timing and location of that process will influence impacts across New Hampshire and Maine.

Forecast model guidance currently falls into two main scenarios. One group of solutions, including many European and Canadian models, develops the storm more aggressively and tracks it farther north. This would produce stronger lift in a moisture-rich environment and could result in more than an inch of precipitation across southern New Hampshire and far southern Maine.

The second scenario, favored by many members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System, keeps the storm weaker and faster moving. In that case, the heaviest rainfall would remain farther south, with precipitation totals over an inch staying mostly outside the region.

The NBM IQR, or National Blend of Models Interquartile Range, is a measure of forecast uncertainty. That uncertainty has increased, reflecting the differing model solutions.

Meanwhile, EFI, or Extreme Forecast Index, and Shift of Tails guidance do not currently suggest a high-end rainfall event. Combined with limited upper-level support and the greatest instability remaining south of the region, rainfall amounts exceeding one inch appear most likely across southernmost New Hampshire and the immediate southern Maine coastline.

Although most of the precipitation should move east by Tuesday afternoon, lingering moisture and breezy conditions may still support scattered showers Tuesday. Additional showers are possible north of the foothills on Wednesday. Increasing northwest winds should help bring in somewhat drier air, limiting shower intensity, although this break may be brief as a generally west-to-east weather pattern continues to feed moisture toward the East Coast through the middle of next week.