Weather for New England and the Northeast

**Area Forecast Discussion**
**National Weather Service Gray ME**
**514 AM EDT Friday June 12 2026**

**What Has Changed**

Increased chances for showers over western New Hampshire during the next few hours to account for developing precipitation in the area.

**Key Messages**

1. Humid conditions persist into today bringing at least a moderate heat risk. Heat Advisories are in effect this afternoon across south-central New Hampshire and interior western Maine.

2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be strong.

3. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and bring the threat for some strong thunderstorms.

4. High astronomical tides this weekend. A return to seasonable weather is expected for much of the work week.

**Discussion**

**Key Message 1 Description**

A humid air mass will remain in place through this evening with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. No changes have been made to the Heat Advisory issued yesterday.

There remains some uncertainty regarding cloud cover, especially across coastal areas. Increased clouds and developing easterly winds could keep temperatures somewhat lower than currently forecast. Early morning fog may become locally dense and could create travel difficulties during the morning commute.

**Key Message 2 Description**

According to the latest high-resolution convection-allowing models, commonly referred to as CAMs, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. A greater chance for more widespread activity is expected during the early evening as lift in the atmosphere increases ahead of an approaching cold front.

The atmosphere is expected to contain modest instability, referred to as CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, which is a measure of the energy available for thunderstorm development. Wind shear, the change in wind speed and direction with height, is expected to remain relatively weak.

Widespread severe weather is not expected, but one or two stronger storms cannot be ruled out late this afternoon or early this evening. The primary threats would be torrential downpours and gusty winds. The thunderstorm threat should diminish around midnight.

Coastal areas may also see fog develop during the evening, and some locations could experience dense fog.

The cold front will bring much drier air for Saturday. High temperatures are expected to reach well into the 80s, and southern locations could briefly touch 90 degrees. However, humidity levels will be much lower, meaning it will feel more comfortable than the actual temperature suggests. Dry weather is expected.

**Key Message 3 Description**

Sunday is expected to be the final hot day before a cooler pattern arrives. Southern portions of the forecast area could once again reach the lower 90s.

Current forecast guidance suggests enough dry air aloft and sufficient atmospheric mixing to keep dew points near 60 degrees. As a result, heat index values are not expected to be significantly higher than the actual air temperatures.

By Sunday afternoon, forecast models indicate the possible development of a pre-frontal trough, an area of lower pressure ahead of the main cold front. This feature could help trigger showers and thunderstorms before the primary front arrives.

Machine learning severe weather guidance suggests conditions could support a Marginal Risk of severe weather. In addition, a nearby Slight Risk area outlined by the Storm Prediction Center is being monitored closely. Forecasters are watching for the possibility of severe weather somewhere within the forecast area.

Forecast soundings indicate healthy low-level instability, another indication that isolated severe thunderstorms could develop. Combined with sufficient wind shear for storm organization, conditions may support a few stronger storms. Forecast details will become clearer as newer high-resolution CAM guidance becomes available.

**Key Message 4 Description**

Forecast models are in good agreement that temperatures will return to near-normal levels following the cold frontal passage on Sunday.

High temperatures next week are expected to range from 75 to 85 degrees, while overnight lows generally fall into the 50s and lower 60s.

A broad area of high pressure will remain southwest of the region. While it should provide generally quiet weather, it may not completely eliminate the chance of isolated rain showers. By the middle and latter part of next week, daytime heating could lead to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms, although organized severe weather is not expected.

A larger upper-level low pressure system and associated trough are forecast to move through the Northeast by Friday or Saturday. This system is expected to bring a more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms and could provide the next opportunity for widespread rainfall.

High astronomical tides, combined with a storm surge of up to one-half foot, may bring total water levels close to minor coastal flood stage Saturday night, especially from Portland southward.