Weather for New England and the Northeast

Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

305 PM EST Monday, November 2, 2026

What Has Changed

There are no significant changes to the forecast since the previous update.

Key Messages

\- Dry weather and unusually warm temperatures will continue into midweek. Afternoon highs will generally reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, with isolated locations possibly reaching the middle 70s and approaching daily temperature records.

\- More unsettled weather is expected later this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal, with periodic chances for rain.

Discussion

Key Message 1: Dry Weather and Unseasonable Warmth Through Midweek

Southern New England will remain under a persistent area of high pressure aloft along the East Coast over the next several days. This feature, known as a mid-level ridge, will help maintain the warm and dry weather pattern through at least Wednesday.

An unusually warm air mass will remain in place, with temperatures approximately 50 to 57 degrees at around 5,000 feet above the ground. These readings are well above normal for early November. Combined with the extended period of dry weather, afternoon temperatures are likely to run warmer than many computer forecast models suggest, with highs reaching well into the 70s through at least Thursday.

Persistent southerly and southwesterly winds will also bring increasing moisture into the region, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures. Lows will generally remain in the 50s through Thursday morning, potentially approaching 60 degrees by Friday morning.

This pattern could bring temperatures close to daily records in some locations. Regardless of whether records are reached, several consecutive days with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s would be quite unusual for November.

Key Message 2: Increasing Chances for Rain Later This Week

A developing area of warmer air, known as a thermal ridge, is expected to strengthen over southern New England around midweek. This will help maintain above-normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures several thousand feet above the ground will remain unusually warm, combined with south to southwest winds. This setup supports afternoon highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s across southern New England on both days.

Computer forecast ensembles, which combine multiple forecast simulations to estimate the likelihood of different outcomes, show a high probability of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Those probabilities remain elevated for Thursday as well, reaching as high as 90 percent across portions of the southern coastal plain.

A return to more seasonable temperatures is not expected until the second half of the weekend as the ridge of high pressure shifts farther east. However, the timing will depend on how an approaching weather system develops and tracks across the region.

Forecast models continue to show increasing agreement that more unsettled weather will return during the second half of this week.

An upper-level trough, or an elongated area of lower pressure and cooler air higher in the atmosphere, is expected to move in from the west. This system will help draw an unusually large amount of moisture into southern New England. Forecast guidance indicates moisture levels could run two to three standard deviations above normal, meaning the atmosphere may contain considerably more moisture than is typical for this time of year.

Closer to the ground, an approaching frontal system associated with an area of low pressure is expected to move across the region. This should bring a good chance for periods of rain toward the end of the week.

The exact timing remains somewhat uncertain. Current forecasts suggest rain could begin as early as Thursday evening across western Massachusetts and Connecticut, gradually spreading eastward through Friday. Some showers could linger into Sunday in parts of the region.

Forecast guidance continues to show a reasonable possibility of meaningful rainfall. The probability of receiving at least 0.50 inches of precipitation within a 24-hour period ending Saturday morning generally ranges from 30 to 70 percent across the various forecast model ensembles.

There are some differences between the major forecast models regarding where the heaviest rainfall may occur. The Canadian and European forecast ensembles suggest a broader area of rainfall across much of southern New England as the front moves from west to east. The American forecast ensemble, known as the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System), places its higher rainfall probabilities more narrowly over Cape Cod and portions of the southeastern Massachusetts coastal plain.

Because of these differences, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the exact development and movement of the storm system. Those details will determine how much rain ultimately falls and whether stronger showers or even a few rumbles of thunder develop.

Overall, the main message remains a continuation of unusually warm and dry weather through midweek, followed by increasing chances for rain Thursday into Friday and potentially lingering showers through the weekend.