New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Current Weather Readings:

(FYI: The number in parenthesis below is the change in the last hour)

• Time of the readings below: 19 Apr 2025 4:04 PM

• Current Temperature: 76.1°F (2.5)

• High Temperature for today: 76.1 at 4:03 PM.

• Low Temperature for Today: 54.2 at 6:15 AM.

• Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches

• Current Dewpoint Temperature: 58.7°F (0.8)

• Hours of Daylight Tomorrow: 13:37

• Lowest Windchill Reading Today: 53.9 at 12:25 AM 

  Find ALL of my instrument readings here

  Last Complete Site Update: 4/19 - 7:30 AM

  

  Still snowing in the west

  Rich`s Weather Discussion

  I am expecting a new computer at some point. When it arrives there will be disruptions to the site update schedule, updates, my weather instrument feeds, etc.
  As anyone who has done a computer data migration is aware, these things can go easy, or be a mess. So FYI for now.
  The new website will go up once things settle down. 
  
  Skies were cloudy across the region this morning with some early showers moving across the north ahead of a warm front.
  We remain dry here in southern NH. 
  I expect some breaks in the overcast here in Southern NH today, driving temps into the mid and upper 70s. Winds will be gusty.
  By late in the day a cold front will approach the region with some showers and thunderstorms. 
  After the front passes, cooler air and very gusty winds move in. Easter Sunday looks sunny, pleasant, and much cooler with strong gusty winds.
  
  The pollen count jumps. See the numbers in Weather Graphic #3.
  
  On this day in 1775, the American Revolutionary War began when 700 British troops marched into Lexington to find 77 armed minutemen, led by Captain John Parker, waiting for them.
  

  NEAR TERM, UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
  
  As of 640 AM EDT, a warm front is moving through the region. The initial round of showers is exiting the coast and eastern areas. Further upstream, there is some thunderstorm activity, known as convection, over northern New York. This convection is expected to move toward the mountains by mid morning. Areas south of the mountains are expected to stay mostly dry. Some high-resolution forecast models, specifically the 06Z CAMs, or Convective Allowing Models, indicated a greater eastward reach of thunderstorms later today. Based on these trends, the forecast has been updated to refine the probability of precipitation and to expand slight chances for thunder into the coastal plain.
  
  Previously
  
  Radar data shows showers moving west to east across northern New England as a warm front lifts through the region. Ground-level weather stations confirm this rain is reaching the surface, which means the lower atmosphere has become sufficiently moist. This first round of showers is expected to exit the area around sunrise. Upstream, a cluster of thunderstorms over Ontario is forecast to track near the Canadian border by mid morning. This will keep a chance of showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm over the mountains and northern zones.
  
  South of the mountains, conditions are expected to remain mostly dry into the afternoon, with cloud cover beginning to thin. This clearing will allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s across most of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine. Southwest winds will become breezy, with gusts between 25 and 30 miles per hour. In the mountains and far north, temperatures may be limited to the 60s due to thicker cloud cover and an onshore wind keeping the Mid Coast cooler.
  
  A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon, bringing renewed chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the mountains and into central and southern New Hampshire. The CAMs suggest that limited sunshine, combined with dewpoints rising into the mid 50s, will allow 500 to 1000 joules per kilogram of ML CAPE, or Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy, to build in advance of the front. This is a measure of the atmosphere?Äôs potential to support thunderstorm development. However, dry air aloft may limit how widespread these storms become. Recent trends show a modest increase in thunderstorm potential for mid to late afternoon. Inverted V soundings, which are vertical temperature and moisture profiles that indicate dry air near the surface, suggest any strong storms could produce gusty winds. However, confidence is not high enough to include stronger storm language in the forecast. The highest chance for gusty storms will be across central and southern New Hampshire into southwestern Maine.
  
  SHORT TERM, 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY
  
  The cold front will continue to move across the area this evening and tonight. Thunderstorm activity is expected to fade around sunset. As the front moves offshore, cooler and drier air will move in with strengthening northwest winds. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the south.
  
  The pressure gradient force, referred to as PGF, will become stronger on Sunday between a deepening low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building over the Great Lakes. Winds at the top of the mixed layer, or the well-mixed portion of the atmosphere near the surface, are expected to reach around 40 knots. With good vertical mixing, surface wind gusts are forecast to reach 35 to 40 miles per hour, especially in eastern areas and the mountains. This same mixing process will also bring drier air to the surface, causing relative humidity to drop to around 20 percent south of the mountains. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Otherwise, Sunday will be mostly sunny with high temperatures ranging from the low 40s in the north to the mid 50s in the south.
  
  LONG TERM, SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
  
  12 AM EDT Long Term Update
  
  There is little change in the latest National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance. After a dry Monday, rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as a weak triple point low pressure system approaches from the west. A triple point refers to the intersection of three different air masses, typically cold, warm, and occluded fronts, which can enhance lift and precipitation. After this, mainly dry weather and near-seasonable temperatures are expected for the middle of next week.
  
  Previously
  
  Key Message: The progression of spring continues, with temperatures fluctuating between cool and warm periods. There are two solid signals for precipitation, one around Tuesday and another later in the week. The timing of the second system remains uncertain.
  
  Forecast Details: Confidence is high for rain on Tuesday. Like the event expected Saturday, models show a light but widespread rain event. The best chance for measurable rain will be in northern areas, where fire danger is already lower. This will be monitored through midweek.
  
  By late in the week, a trough over the western United States combined with a broad ridge over the East will lead to a fast-moving weather pattern. A trough refers to an area of lower pressure aloft that typically brings cooler and unsettled weather, while a ridge brings warmth and dryness. Due to uncertainty in the timing of individual systems, the chance for precipitation is spread over several forecast periods. Using chance wording remains appropriate given the current level of forecast confidence.
  

  Forcaster`s Discussion
  

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  Regional Synopsis

  New Hampshire and Maine

  SYNOPSIS... Warmer air moves into the area today as an area of low pressure tracks across Quebec with the attendant cold front crossing tonight. There will be chances of showers through sunrise with a break before chances of showers increase this evening as the cold front approaches. Northwest winds will gust 35-40 mph on Sunday in the wake of the cold front. High pressure builds in Sunday night into Monday. The next chance of showers arrives Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure approaches New England.
  

  Massachusetts

  SYNOPSIS... Warm and breezy weather conditions expected today, with scattered showers arriving later this afternoon and evening. Drier and mild behind a cold front Sunday. Low pressure should pass by to our north Tuesday. High pressure then expected to linger nearby into Friday with above normal temperatures.
  
  NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages:
  
  * Very warm and breezy with high temperatures well into the 70s to lower 80s, despite filtered sun.
  
  SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
  Key Messages:
  
  * Cold front brings passing showers early tonight, but with cooler conditions and gusty NW winds up to 45 mph for overnight.
  
  LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
  Key Messages:
  * Dry for much of Monday with light winds.
  * Showers Monday night into Tuesday and another round Friday.
  * Temperatures next week slightly above normal.
  

See the current readings from my weather instruments here in Peterborough, NH by clicking on the Weather Vane Below.

Weather History for Today