New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Time of the readings below: 2 May 2024 8:19 AM
Current Temperature: 49.4°F (-0.2) 
High Temperature for the day: 50.0 at 6:39 AM.
Low Temperature for today: 49.4 at 8:18 AM.
Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches
Current Dewpoint: 47.5°F (0.1)
Hours of Daylight Tomorrow: 14:11
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last complete site update: 5/02 - 7:37 AM

A programming note:
There will NOT be a Thursday Evening email this week. I will be attending an out of state funeral on Thursday and Friday. Like last week, I have updated the daily forecast through Sunday, this morning, 05/02, as usual. The next full site update will be either Friday (5/3) evening or Saturday morning (5/4). Then back to the regular schedule.

Welcome to the month of May!
From today through Sunday: When it isn?Äôt raining (and it won?Äôt be for much of the time until Sunday) there will be lots of clouds in the sky. There may be some thunderstorm activity today.

The latest Rapid Refresh analysis shows the center of high pressure over upstate New York at this hour. It is slightly deepening keeping convection going, so included thunder for another hour across northern New Hampshire. 

Previous Discussion... Impacts:
*No significant weather impacts expected

Some convection is rolling over the ridge early this morning and is just about at the Vermont-New Hampshire border at the time of this writing. 
Otherwise a band of clouds associated with the warm front aloft persists across the area with more forming upstream. These will hamper warming today for Maine and Eastern New Hampshire with highs expected to cap out in the low to mid 50s. The exception will be in western and southern New Hampshire where, when the surface warm front arrives, skies likely clear enough to allow temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s. How far into the state this penetrates will be a question, but it looks like it could make it to at least Concord before temperatures sharply drop off. Positive theta-E along the warm front will also provide some instability for thunderstorms to develop. Rain showers will cross central Maine as well, but with the much cooler temperatures these will not have a threat of lightning.

Tonight into Friday:
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected

All showers will taper off quickly heading into the night as a ridge begins to build into the area. This subsidence following the rain will likely result in patchy fog in the usual valley locations. Skies will start to clear from north to south, but only partly, so would expect most of the area to see lows in the 40s with some upper 30s north of the mountains where the most clearing will be realized the most.

Skies will remain partly cloudy through the day Friday, but with surface high pressure and a 500mb ridge continuing to build in we will remain dry with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long range:
Anomalously high heights will persist over the Northeast through the duration of the extended forecast period... which will allow an anomalously warm airmass to build into the mid levels. In spite of this, it is still very much Spring in New England, and surface flow relative to the Gulf of Maine will ultimately call the shots regarding the sensible weather conditions. High pressure initially sits offshore this weekend, which keeps conditions humid and cooler than average. A cold front crosses late in the weekend with rain showers, with offshore flow in its wake bringing fresh flow out of the west or northwest into New England with warmer, drier air and sunnier skies. The weather pattern remains active however with another chance for rain around the the middle or latter part of next week.

Starting Friday night... surface high pressure centered over Labrador builds south along the Eastern Seaboard, re-centering to near Nova Scotia by Sunday. At the same time, low pressure near Hudson Bay slowly drifts east... bringing a slow-moving cold front into the Northeast. Resultant northeasterly-turning- southeasterly flow over our forecast area brings a steadily moistening column over the weekend, leading to increasing clouds and eventually rain showers late Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will vary depending on proximity to the coastline, with 60s over the interior of New Hampshire but 50s more likely in Maine and toward the Seacoast... and the immediate coastline sticking closer to Sea surface temperatures in the 40s. Thickening cloud decks and continued onshore flow produces a fairly dreary Sunday with temperatures in the 40s and 50s and rain showers. Forcing doesn`t look great, with the parent circulation well north of the region; ensembles bring on average 0.25-0.4" of rain however would expect higher and lower amounts, with an inch or so on the high end given decent moisture depth and some areas possibly staying dry. Instability doesn`t appear to be a major factor at this time.

The cold front crosses late Sunday into Monday, with showers ending by the end of the day Monday... though cyclonic flow and slowed frontal movement may delay improvement. Drier flow out of the west will allow for stronger mixing with minimal maritime influence, in turn allowing temperatures to warm strongly into the 70s... except the 60s along the coast where a weak onshore component persists, and across the north where clouds and some showers likely hang around. Tuesday sees a similar fate with highs again in the 60s and 70s and a sunnier mix of clouds and sun.

The next wave moving through the upper level pattern approaches New England by the middle of the week with flow again turning southerly to onshore. Thus, can expect cloudier... more humid... and likely cooler and showery weather to make a return sometime in the middle or end of next week.

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