Bailey and Potter, CPA

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I use abbreviations for many things:
Precip = Precipitation
SWS = Special Weather Statements
I will continue to add more to this list as I think of them.
I update the forecasts by 7AM and 7PM each day...more frequently if some weather thing is going on.

I am based in Peterborough, NH, but the main forecasts (for now) are for Nashua, NH and the region. I send out an email every Thursday that covers the upcoming weekend forecast. I also send out advisories when issued by the NWS to this list. You will NEVER get SPAM or emails from anyone else. I don't share my mail list with anyone. If you'd like to be a part of that mailing, send your email address to: Mail List

 

How I started...

I've been a weather hobbyist all of my life. As a child, I used to stand outside in the rain during thunderstorms just to watch the lightning. Back in the '70s getting weather information was a chore. I remember listening to NWS broadcasts during hurricane season and plotting these on a piece of paper. After moving to New England I finally bought my first real weather station made by Davis Instruments. I began to record daily weather data in a journal. I had a few people, where I work, who knew I was a weather nut, ask me to send them an e-mail on the weekend forecast. So two grew to five then 15, then 40, and now my Thursday weekend mail list reaches over 200+ people. I took some web programming classes in the late '90s and a few years after that RichLefko.com was born. I wanted to share my hobby with anyone who was interested, and I am quite overwhelmed with how many people seem to be interested. I've gotten so many "thank yous" for a variety of reasons..."saved my party", "saved my wedding", "saved my life." It's been fun and rewarding all at the same time.
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Hurricanes 2018

2018 Season Tracking Page


Last updated: Friday, October 12, 2018 6:21 PM

Hurricane Leslie

Not all data/maps are included below - It depends on storm location, strength, etc...

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...

...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEGINNING TUESDAY..

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...

...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REGAINS SUBTROPICAL STORM STATUS...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO ROVE AROUND THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR
QUITE AWHILE...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS...

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS...

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS...


...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE ALMOST A HURRICANE...

...LESLIE NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME ONE...

...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE...

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD WHILE HOLDING STEADY IN
STRENGTH...

...LESLIE REFUSES TO CHANGE MUCH IN INTENSITY...

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

...LESLIE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE...

...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED...

...INDOMITABLE LESLIE EXPECTED TO STIR UP THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...

...LESLIE LOITERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE TURNING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE MARCHES ON WITH NO CHANGE IN SPEED OR STRENGTH...

...LESLIE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER BUT IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY...

...LESLIE STILL LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

...TENACIOUS LESLIE RESTRENGTHENING...

...LONG-LIVED LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...

...LESLIE FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...

...EVERLASTING LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...

...LESLIE NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...

...LESLIE LIKELY TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW...

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

..LESLIE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR COUPLE OF DAYS...

...LESLIE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

...HURRICANE LESLIE CONTINUES RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...COULD BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA SUNDAY...

...HURRICANE LESLIE RACING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS TO PORTIONS
OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

None

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...HURRICANE LESLIE RACING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS TO PORTIONS
OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 24.1W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 24.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A fast motion
toward the east-northeastward is expected to continue through
Saturday, followed by a slower east-northeastward motion Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will
pass north of Madeira Island tonight and early Saturday, approach
the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday, and
move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Saturday
and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weakening is forecast after
Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula, and the post-
tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to
portions of Portugal late Saturday, and tropical-storm-force winds
to portions of western Spain late Saturday and Saturday night.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain amounts of 1 to
3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 4 inches (100
mm) across Portugal and portions of Spain through Sunday night.
This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Gone in Five Days

 

 

 



 

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