Bailey and Potter, CPA

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I use abbreviations for many things:
Precip = Precipitation
SWS = Special Weather Statements
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I update the forecasts by 7AM and 7PM each day...more frequently if some weather thing is going on.

I am based in Peterborough, NH, but the main forecasts (for now) are for Nashua, NH and the region. I send out an email every Thursday that covers the upcoming weekend forecast. I also send out advisories when issued by the NWS to this list. You will NEVER get SPAM or emails from anyone else. I don't share my mail list with anyone. If you'd like to be a part of that mailing, send your email address to: Mail List

 

How I started...

I've been a weather hobbyist all of my life. As a child, I used to stand outside in the rain during thunderstorms just to watch the lightning. Back in the '70s getting weather information was a chore. I remember listening to NWS broadcasts during hurricane season and plotting these on a piece of paper. After moving to New England I finally bought my first real weather station made by Davis Instruments. I began to record daily weather data in a journal. I had a few people, where I work, who knew I was a weather nut, ask me to send them an e-mail on the weekend forecast. So two grew to five then 15, then 40, and now my Thursday weekend mail list reaches over 200+ people. I took some web programming classes in the late '90s and a few years after that RichLefko.com was born. I wanted to share my hobby with anyone who was interested, and I am quite overwhelmed with how many people seem to be interested. I've gotten so many "thank yous" for a variety of reasons..."saved my party", "saved my wedding", "saved my life." It's been fun and rewarding all at the same time.
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Hurricanes 2018

2018 Season Tracking Page


Last updated: Sunday, July 8, 2018 6:05 PM

Remnants of Beryl

Not all data/maps are included below - It depends on storm location, strength, etc...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND...

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL...

...TINY BERYL STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...TINY BERYL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...TINY BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...

...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

...MINIATURE BERYL SPEEDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...NO CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF BERYL AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...

...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...BERYL A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...

...BERYL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

...BERYL WEAKENS FURTHER...

...BERYL WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...

...BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...

...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...

...BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

...DISORGANIZED BERYL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE BY THIS EVENING...

None


BULLETIN
Remnants Of Beryl Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...REMNANTS OF BERYL RACING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 60.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has replaced the Tropical Storm Warning
for Dominica with a Tropical Storm Watch.

The other respective governments of the Caribbean area have
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, and have
discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique, St. Martin,
St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Maarten, and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Beryl were located near
latitude 15.2 North, longitude 60.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (42 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the remnants of Beryl will move across the Leeward Islands, and move
near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is anticipated during the next 24 hours.

However, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat
conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone in a few days
when the remnants of Beryl are forecast to move across the Bahamas
and the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Dominica and
Guadeloupe tonight. Strong gusty winds are also possible elsewhere
across the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Monday.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward
and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up
to 5 inches are possible.

Gone in Five Days

 

 

 

 



 

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