Bailey and Potter, CPA

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I use abbreviations for many things:
Precip = Precipitation
SWS = Special Weather Statements
I will continue to add more to this list as I think of them.
I update the forecasts by 7AM and 7PM each day...more frequently if some weather thing is going on.

I am based in Peterborough, NH, but the main forecasts (for now) are for Nashua, NH and the region. I send out an email every Thursday that covers the upcoming weekend forecast. I also send out advisories when issued by the NWS to this list. You will NEVER get SPAM or emails from anyone else. I don't share my mail list with anyone. If you'd like to be a part of that mailing, send your email address to: Mail List

 

How I started...

I've been a weather hobbyist all of my life. As a child, I used to stand outside in the rain during thunderstorms just to watch the lightning. Back in the '70s getting weather information was a chore. I remember listening to NWS broadcasts during hurricane season and plotting these on a piece of paper. After moving to New England I finally bought my first real weather station made by Davis Instruments. I began to record daily weather data in a journal. I had a few people, where I work, who knew I was a weather nut, ask me to send them an e-mail on the weekend forecast. So two grew to five then 15, then 40, and now my Thursday weekend mail list reaches over 200+ people. I took some web programming classes in the late '90s and a few years after that RichLefko.com was born. I wanted to share my hobby with anyone who was interested, and I am quite overwhelmed with how many people seem to be interested. I've gotten so many "thank yous" for a variety of reasons..."saved my party", "saved my wedding", "saved my life." It's been fun and rewarding all at the same time.
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Hurricanes 2017

2017 Season Tracking Page


Last updated: Wednesday, May 24, 2017 5:58 PM

Tropical Cyclone Bret

Not all data/maps are included below - It depends on storm location, strength, etc...

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...

...CENTER OF MATTHEW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES..

...MATTHEW STILL BATTERING MARTINIQUE AND NEARBY ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

...MATTHEW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM
THE LESSER ANTILLES..

...MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

...HURRICANE MATTHEW STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

...MATTHEW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE...

...MATTHEW CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE JUST NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA...

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH
WINDS..
.

...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007...

...MATTHEW CONTINUES AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

...MATTHEW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD...

...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND MUCH OF HAITI...
...MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF HAITI...

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW BARELY MOVING...

...150-MPH MATTHEW FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST...

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...

...MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER AGAIN...
...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW IS STILL A POWERFUL
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

...MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...

...EYE OF MATTHEW PASSING OVER A NOAA BUOY IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA BUOY REPORTS MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 943 MB IN THE EYE...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI TONIGHT...

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF HAITI...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF HAITI...

...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW IS STILL A 140-MPH HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT..

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT..

...MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON HAITI...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MATTHEW NEARING THE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI...

...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LES ANGLAIS IN WESTERN HAITI AT 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OVER
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND IS HEADING FOR EASTERN CUBA...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO HIT
FAR EASTERN CUBA HARD LATER TODAY...

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW
ALREADY POUNDING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA...

...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS AFTER HITTING
CUBA HARD...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES SIMULTANEOUSLY
PENETRATE MATTHEW'S EYE...

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON THE BAHAMAS AND AIMING
TOWARD FLORIDA...

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW ON ITS WAY TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY...
...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...

...MATTHEW POUNDING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING FLORIDA...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA...

...HURRICANE MATTHEW RELENTLESSLY POUNDING THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO HIT
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW OVER THE WESTERN
END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST..

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...WESTERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING CAPE
CANAVERAL...

...6 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL BRUSHING CAPE CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h) occurred on
Cape Canaveral.

During the past hour, a wind gust of 107 mph (170 km/h) occurred on
the tip of Cape Canaveral.

...EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HUGGING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...WESTERN EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW BRUSHING PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW LASHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...

...HURRICANE MATTHEW CAUSES DEVASTATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE COASTS
OF ...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA...

...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA...
...STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MATTHEW LASHING HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND
PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND...


...MATTHEW MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE
MATTHEW HUGS THE COAST...

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT
AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW
MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING
OCCURING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

...STRONG WINDS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

...STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

None

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE
MATTHEW HUGS THE COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 78.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from South Santee River southward has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of South of Santee River to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Matthew is
moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight and early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will be near the coast of
southern North Carolina by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the
center is near the coasts of North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) mainly
over water to the east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Multiple private weather
stations along the coast of South Carolina near Myrtle Beach have
recently reported hurricane-force wind gusts.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force aircraft data
is 977 mb (28.85 inches). CORMP buoy 41024 near the center also
reported a minimum pressure of 977.8 mb (28.87 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area this afternoon, and spread northward
elsewhere within the warning area through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including
portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo,
North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the
Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North
Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20
inches possible. This rainfall may result in life-threatening
flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon along
the coast of North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Gone in Five days

 

 

 



 

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