Bailey and Potter, CPA

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I use abbreviations for many things:
Precip = Precipitation
SWS = Special Weather Statements
I will continue to add more to this list as I think of them.
I update the forecasts by 7AM and 7PM each day...more frequently if some weather thing is going on.

I am based in Peterborough, NH, but the main forecasts (for now) are for Nashua, NH and the region. I send out an email every Thursday that covers the upcoming weekend forecast. I also send out advisories when issued by the NWS to this list. You will NEVER get SPAM or emails from anyone else. I don't share my mail list with anyone. If you'd like to be a part of that mailing, send your email address to: Mail List

 

How I started...

I've been a weather hobbyist all of my life. As a child, I used to stand outside in the rain during thunderstorms just to watch the lightning. Back in the '70s getting weather information was a chore. I remember listening to NWS broadcasts during hurricane season and plotting these on a piece of paper. After moving to New England I finally bought my first real weather station made by Davis Instruments. I began to record daily weather data in a journal. I had a few people, where I work, who knew I was a weather nut, ask me to send them an e-mail on the weekend forecast. So two grew to five then 15, then 40, and now my Thursday weekend mail list reaches over 200+ people. I took some web programming classes in the late '90s and a few years after that RichLefko.com was born. I wanted to share my hobby with anyone who was interested, and I am quite overwhelmed with how many people seem to be interested. I've gotten so many "thank yous" for a variety of reasons..."saved my party", "saved my wedding", "saved my life." It's been fun and rewarding all at the same time.
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Hurricanes 2017

2017 Season Tracking Page


Last updated: Monday, October 16, 2017 5:30 PM

Post Tropical Cyclone Ophelia

Not all data/maps are included below - It depends on storm location, strength, etc...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...

...OPHELIA REMAINS FAR OUT TO SEA AS A TROPICAL STORM...

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...

...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...

...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...

...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...

...OPHELIA LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE ON SATELLITE BUT IT IS NOT ONE
QUITE YET...

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC...

...OPHELIA MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


...SMALL BUT POWERFUL OPHELIA WITH 105-MPH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC..

...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...OPHELIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...

...CORE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AZORES ON
SATURDAY EVENING...

...CENTER OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES THIS EVENING...

...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE
AZORES...
...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...

...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...

...LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING EAST OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT...

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...

None

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

Gone in Five Days

 

 

 

 

 



 

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