Bailey and Potter, CPA

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I use abbreviations for many things:
Precip = Precipitation
SWS = Special Weather Statements
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I update the forecasts by 7AM and 7PM each day...more frequently if some weather thing is going on.

I am based in Peterborough, NH, but the main forecasts (for now) are for Nashua, NH and the region. I send out an email every Thursday that covers the upcoming weekend forecast. I also send out advisories when issued by the NWS to this list. You will NEVER get SPAM or emails from anyone else. I don't share my mail list with anyone. If you'd like to be a part of that mailing, send your email address to: Mail List

 

How I started...

I've been a weather hobbyist all of my life. As a child, I used to stand outside in the rain during thunderstorms just to watch the lightning. Back in the '70s getting weather information was a chore. I remember listening to NWS broadcasts during hurricane season and plotting these on a piece of paper. After moving to New England I finally bought my first real weather station made by Davis Instruments. I began to record daily weather data in a journal. I had a few people, where I work, who knew I was a weather nut, ask me to send them an e-mail on the weekend forecast. So two grew to five then 15, then 40, and now my Thursday weekend mail list reaches over 200+ people. I took some web programming classes in the late '90s and a few years after that RichLefko.com was born. I wanted to share my hobby with anyone who was interested, and I am quite overwhelmed with how many people seem to be interested. I've gotten so many "thank yous" for a variety of reasons..."saved my party", "saved my wedding", "saved my life." It's been fun and rewarding all at the same time.
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Hurricanes 2016

2016 Season Tracking Page


Last updated: Sunday, September 25, 2016 6:00 PM

Post Tropical Cyclone Karl

Not all data/maps are included below - It depends on storm location, strength, etc...

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NOW WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING...

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, BUT NOT FOR A FEW DAYS...

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...LITTLE CHANGE WITH KARL WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...

...KARL FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...

...KARL CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL STORM OVER OPEN ATLANTIC...

...KARL'S INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND...

...KARL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...

...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK...

...KARL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...KARL POISED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...KARL NOT STRENGTHENING YET...

...KARL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

...KARL TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

...KARL BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...

...KARL STRUGGLING AGAIN...
...STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY IN THE STORM...

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT KARL HAS
NOT STRENGTHENED...

...KARL LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILING
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...KARL REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...

...KARL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH...

...NOAA JET DATA INDICATES THAT KARL IS POORLY ORGANIZED...

... KARL STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...

...KARL STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON...

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL
STORM...

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT KARL HAS
STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE...

...KARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...

...CORE OF KARL FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY
SATURDAY...

...KARL CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY...

...KARL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS THE CENTER OF KARL A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS BERMUDA...

...KARL MAINTAINING 60-MPH WINDS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT KARL IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...

..CENTER OF KARL MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...

...CENTER OF KARL PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA...

...CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON BERMUDA AS KARL HEADS FOR THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...

...KARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...

...KARL ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...

...KARL RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...

...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

 

None

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 47.9W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The post-
tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 49 mph (80
km/h), and this motion with some further increase in forward speed
is expected today. A turn toward the north-northeast should occur
by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast before Karl is absorbed by a
larger extratropical storm over the North Atlantic on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this Karl.

Gone in Five days

 

 

 



 

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