New England Weather Discussion

(With thanks to the surrounding National Weather Service Offices)

Time of the readings below: 19 Apr 2024 10:26 PM
Current Temperature: 49.4°F (-1.6) 
High Temperature for the day: 61.4 at 4:09 PM.
Low Temperature for today: 40.0 at 6:11 AM.
Rainfall Today: 0.00 inches
Current Dewpoint: 32.5°F (-1.5)
Hours of Daylight Tomorrow: 13:38
Find all of my instrument readings here.

Last complete site update: 4/19 - 5:52 PM

It turned out to be a fairly nice day here in the Monadnocks with tempeatures reaching 60 degrees. It all goes downhill tonight.
Read the long term below: there may be some snow in the forecast.
Tonight will be fairly mild and humid as southerly flow continues ahead of a frontal system tracking into New England, with lows in the 40s. Light rain will come in rounds, first with a warm front later this evening... and again with an initial, weak cold front after midnight. Although initial showers this evening into the overnight will be fairly light and widely scattered, more widespread stratiform rains are expected to develop in the early morning hours closer to the coast. This occurs as the front reaches the coast and amplifies into a baroclinic leaf... and has trended a bit more bullish with rainfall amounts, with a stripe of around 0.25-0.4" extending from southern New Hampshire to the Midcoast.

Saturday starts rainy along the coast, although stronger mixing will be well underway further north and west as cooler and drier air filters in behind the initial cold front. Thus we can expect clearing, or at least lifting ceilings, from west to east through the morning hours... with conditions along the Midcoast likely to remain a bit raw into the afternoon.

Lapse rates will steepen significantly through the day Saturday, leading to gusty west winds across the area. Statistical guidance favors wind gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt range, however a look at model profiles suggest that with adequate momentum transfer stronger gusts in excess of 30 kts (35 mph) will be possible. There will be plenty of mid-level moisture available combined with cyclonic flow aloft, a secondary cold front, and those steep lapse rates to produce scattered showers especially in the afternoon which will be the best bet for mixing those stronger gusts to the surface. With freezing levels falling to below 4 kft, would expect some graupel in the stronger cells that form as well. Otherwise, the strong mixing and clearing will allow temperatures to rebound well into the 50s or low 60s in spite of the cooler airmass advecting in from the northwest.

Precipitation chances are expected to diminish fairly quickly Saturday evening and overnight as flow aloft turns more zonal and surface heating is lost. Winds will likely remain a touch breezy, not strong enough for any sort of impact but likely strong enough to keep temperatures from cooling past the 30s overnight under clearing skies.

Long range::
Overview...

A broad trough extending into the Northeast brings seasonably cool and dry conditions into midweek on northwesterly flow. Conditions likely become unsettled again by Wednesday into Thursday as a slow moving front progresses through New England.

Details...

A weak area of low pressure passes to the north late Sunday and Monday, bringing the chance for some showers to northern areas and the higher terrain Sunday night and Monday. South of the mountains, conditions look to remain dry. A weak and dry front passes through the area Sunday night, bringing dry conditions and breezy northwesterly winds, along with cool temperatures. South of the mountains, fire weather is likely to be a concern, while temps in the 30s and 40s through the mountains and foothills lessens these concerns.

Temperatures and humidity begin to rebound by Tuesday as southerly flow returns ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will crest the region early in the day Tuesday and strengthen as it moves out south of the Canadian Maritimes.

A slow moving front pushes into New England on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, with an area of low pressure likely to develop. How organized and significant this system becomes remains the subject of some uncertainty, but regardless showers at least look likely across the forecast area. With high pressure centered to the north across Quebec, some precipitation is likely to switch to snow by Wednesday night, particularly across northwestern locations and the higher terrain.

The Thursday-Friday time remains uncertain at this point as the low pressure system will be slow to depart to the east, but strong high pressure will push in from the west. There is likely to be a sharp gradient from clear skies and warmer temps to the west, with cool and damp conditions to the east. Whether this occurs at night or during the daytime on Thursday remains uncertain, but will result in two very different outcomes depending on the placement of these features. We`ll have to wait at least a few more days before the details become more clear on this.

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